Good afternoon everybody, I want to start by saying I learned a lot from this storm on many fronts (no pun intended), including about leaning a little more into my intuition, and consistency.
I would have been more in the ballpark for snow totals (and correct, in some cases) had I not given into the Thursday PM / Friday AM model guidance jack-up of precipitation totals (and hence snow totals).
I’m not beating myself up that much about it like I used to (historically I’ve have one here meltdown per year – I’m done with that).
I did the best I could, my intentions were good, I made mistakes, I admitted them, and like everyone else in the world who makes mistakes, you learn, reflect, and move on.
Another big thing is that I’m not going to lead in my headlines with major impacts from a storm that is affecting an area other than my coverage area (WMass, Taconics, SVT, SWNH, CMass, and N.CT).
Anyway, you can read my two earlier posts about how this storm system transpired and did what it did, but now it’s time to move forward.
TONIGHT
Heavy snow continues in eastern Worcester County and eastern Windham County CT, as that frontogenesis band consolidates into eastern MA and down onto the Upper Cape, where someone will end up with 2-3 feet of snowfall (areas southwest and south of Boston are already at 2 feet).
Truly, the Blizzard of 2022 materialized in parts of EMass (including Boston, I believe) as well as in southern Maine, with outages of 115,000 households out in southeast MA and the Cape alone.
For this evening and overnight, our storm will be pulling away northeast into the Gulf of Maine.
It truly bombed out dropping over 30 millibars in under 20 hours and is now well east of the region.
It is now (at 4pm-ish) dropping its last light snow bands over the WMass region, having already stopped in parts of SVT and the Berkshires. This will continue in parts of WMass / S.VT / SW.NH / NW.CT through 7pm perhaps, and 10pm or so in CMass and NE.CT.
Some coatings to an inch are possible in WMass, more to the east.
As the snow ends, the northwest winds will pick up and gust 30-45mph tonight as the storm tracks northeast toward Atlantic Canada and high pressure works in from the southwest, creating a pressure gradient and allowing northwest winds to gust up to
That combined with current temps in the single digits and teens (and some below zero in S.VT), and low temps expected to drop into the single digits above and below zero, wind chills will plummet to as low as 15 to 30 below zero, so cover exposed skin if you are out and about, as you can frostbite in 30 minutes if you leave it open to this kind of temperature/wind combination.
In fact, wind chill readings are already between -5º and -20º at times. Quite cold!!
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK
For tomorrow, it will be sunny but cold and blustery with highs in the mid teens to low 20s, and with lows in the single digits.
For Monday and Tuesday we can expect fair weather with lighter wind, and highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Monday, and highs in the low to mid 30s on Tuesday.
Lows Monday night will be in the upper singles to low teens, and Tuesday night lows will dip into the 20s as a warm front approaches.
By Wednesday, clouds will be increasing as a frontal boundary works through and brings out temps into the low to mid 40s, which should last into Thursday.
Some rain is possible at night, and then another wave may develop along this boundary and drag colder air in on its backside with a potential for rain changing to mixed precip or even snow by Thursday into Friday.
I will get a better handle on the second half of next week as we get closer, but for now, that’s the broadbrush look.
I am going to go and get some rest and integrate all the things I learned which are flipping through mind’s eye like a rolodex, if you’re old enough to remember what one of those are, lol.
Have a great night, and thanks for all of your reports today.
P.S. Speaking of which, if you have measured, any final or current totals would be appreciated, thank you.
P.P.S. The attached photo is one of a snowflake type called a dendrite by Chris Tashijian of Woburn, MA.
It reminds us that as chaotic and unpredictable as the atmosphere can be, it’s also well organized and well structured.
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WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE… WIND GUST OF 77MPH REPORTED ON CAPE COD THIS MORNING WHERE THE BLIZZARD WILL MAXIMIZE WEST INTO THE SOUTH SHORE SOUTH OF BOSTON WHERE 1-3 FEET OF SNOW WILL FALL… MAJOR PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN THAT REGION WITH OUTAGES RAMPING UP… HOWEVER, SINKING AIR OVER THE WMASS REGION ON WEST SIDE OF THOSE HEAVY SNOW BANDS TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY CUT BACK TOTALS TO MY ORIGINAL THINKING AS OF 2 DAYS AGO, MUCH LESS IMPACT HERE… 7:45am Sat…
Good morning everybody, many of us are waking up to mostly light snow with a coating to 2″ on the ground, except for eastern Hampden County, CMass and northeast CT where heavier snow bands are occurring.
Our low pressure system has deepened 19 millibars in just 10 hours down to a 983mb low, and continues to undergo bombogenesis (which refers to a rapid pressure drop of 24 millibars or more in 24 hours or less).
The storm is located about 200 miles south of Nantucket and is tracking north-northeast, and as it does so will continue to deepen and potentially elongate and leave/develop a second low in its wake which will become the predominant low center.
This is a more complex process than I expected and it doesn’t appear that the maturing of the upper low to the east of the Jersey coast will “jive” with the surface low and/or pair of surface lows to develop significant snow banding west enough into the WMass region enough to support the totals I offered yesterday.
Given this, I should have left my numbers alone that I’ve been posting all week (a general 2-4″ west and 4-8″ east, with 8-16″ in northeast CT, eastern Hampden County and Worcester County south of Rt. 2 corridor) but I can’t go back in time and redo my decisions.
I will post new/lowered totals from what I posted yesterday below, but that’s my current thinking from my observations – most of us will miss the heavier snow banding, which will mean the high end of my ranges yesterday will likely not be achieved.
The brunt of the storm still has to move through late morning into the afternoon (10am-4pm now, quitting by early evening, with some lighter snow showers during our evening time), so we’ll see how far west any heavier snow bands get, but I’m not optimistic that they’ll make it past western Worcester County and eastern Hampden County in MA, and Tolland County CT.
Light to moderate snow will continue all morning and through the day, quitting by this evening.
Wind chills are already below zero in our northwest zones, and winds are gusting out of the northeast and north over 30mph at times already in the WMass region, which should increase to over 40mph at times, maybe briefly 50mph this afternoon in the high terrain.
Wind chills will continue go down below zero everywhere by this afternoon as winds back from the northeast to the north and eventually out of the northwest as the storm pulls away tonight.
REVISED/LOWERED AMOUNTS
C-2″:
–Bennington County VT
–Northern Taconics of E.NY
2-5″ (few spots in SW.NH maybe 6″ or 7″):
–Windham County VT (Brattleboro, Putney)
–Cheshire County NH (Keene, Monadnock)
–Berkshire County MA (GB, Pittsfield, Williamstown)
–Western Hilltowns (the high terrain of western Franklin, western Hampshire, western Hampden Counties)
–Northern Litchfield County CT
4-8″
–Central/eastern Franklin County MA (Greenfield, Orange, Shutesbury)
–Central/eastern Hampshire County MA (Northampton, Amherst, Belchertown)
–Central Hampden County MA (Westfield, west side, Springfield, Holyoke)
–Northern Worcester County MA (Gardner, Fitchburg)
6-12″
–Eastern Hampden County MA (Monson/Palmer eastward)
–Hartford County CT (Hartford)
8-16″ (Windham County near RI border and SE Worcester County could see over 18″)
–Southern Worcester County MA (Brookfields, Sturbridge, Worcester)
–Tolland and Windham Counties CT
16-30″
Eastern MA and Rhode Island
Cape and the Islands
Please post any pics or condition reports of what you are seeing on the ground.
Luckily we have no outages in WMass, 60 in CMass, but over 15000 in southeast MA, and the storm is just getting going down there. I am very worried about those folks, and hopefully they were able to prepare as best they could.
This is a full on major nor’easter for the I-95 corridor in EMass/RI and into CMass and northeast CT, and less for us in the WMass region.
A wintry day on the way, with likely less snow than I thought as of yesterday.
Hope to hear your ground truth reports, thank you.