6:55AM-FRI: BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF WMASS, NORTHERN CT AND CMASS ON SATURDAY, WITH WINTER STORM *WARNINGS* NOW HOISTED FOR THE PIONEER VALLEY EAST THROUGH MA, AND FOR ALL OF N.CT… WINTER STORM *WATCHES* HOISTED FOR SW.NH, SE.VT, WESTERN HILLTOWNS AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY… BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE COAST OF EMASS… STORM TRACK CLARIFYING, WHICH NOW MAY RUN OVER NANTUCKET… SOME EAST OF I-91 WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET… SOME OUTAGES POSSIBLE… WIND CHILL BELOW ZERO… WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH IN WMASS, AND UP TO 80MPH ON THE CAPE WITH WIDESPREAD OUTAGES THERE… WHAT WILL BECOME THE BLIZZARD OF 2022 IS ON THE WAY, WITH WORST IMPACTS IN EASTERN MA (INCLUDING THE CAPE, RI, EASTERN CT, AND EVEN INTO CMASS… #BombogenesisTime
Good morning folks, today is the literal calm before the storm, with some snow showers expected, and a few table-setting coatings possible. It’ll be a walk in the park compared to much of southern New Englnad tomorrow, as a major nor’easter lashes the region with snow, wind, and cold. Before we parse out the myriad and multiple storm and impact details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning folks, this is why I tell you to stay tuned for updates and keep your minds open to changes. Until the event happens, we’re talking about the future, and that point in time tends to be a malleable thing, not set in stone, as I like to say.
Having said that, it’s going to snow tomorrow! The little snow loving kid in me that found comfort staring out of my eastern MA living room window, mesmerized by the cadence of delicate dendrites wafting down, is wicked psyched!
On Sunday I will sleep (and possibly drool on myself) with Ask This Old House episodes cycling through my slumber, but for now, sleep is not part of the equation.
Tappity tap tap is the constant sound I’m hearing, so let’s get down to business and spell it all out. I will post a Reader’s Digest version at the bottom of the page if you don’t like to read or have time, but for those who want the story, let us begin to spin the yarn of what is likely to become The Blizzard of 2022 in southern New England.
TODAY AND TONIGHT
For today, a cold front will be approaching the region and with high pressure scooting to the east, we’ll enjoy a pretty nice late January day with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s with mostly cloudy skies, and some snow showers at times. A few coatings can’t be ruled out, as well.
Clouds will thicken and increase a major cyclogenesis begins to take shape to our south, and lows will crash into the mid single digits to mid teens as fresh cold Canadian air is driven south through the region thanks to a strong 1030mb high pressure system classically moving east into Quebec, and in place to act as the pressure counterpoint to very low pressure as it undergoes bombogenesis off of the Carolina coast and is drawn north toward Nantucket.
STORM SETUP
As high pressure moves into place to our north, draining cold air, an upper level low dives southeast through the Ohio and northern Tennessee Valleys and swings east to the Mid-Atlantic coastline as a southern energy combines with an area of low pressure north of the Bahamas.
At the same time, this takes place within the eastern portion of an upper level trough (much larger area of lower than average pressures aloft) that swings into the eastern U.S., cold dry air to the north, warm moist air to the south, and they call combine into a bombing surface low that could drop between 40 and 50mb of pressure in 24 hours, which is MAJOR.
This happens overnight into Saturday morning, and the surface low makes its closest pass to Nantucket island by around noon or so possibly as a sub-970mb low, which is POWERFUL.
SNOW BEGINS EARLIER
The snow shield will expand rapidly north after midnight, and I think we start to see light to sometimes moderate snow between 2am-5am from south to north, and maybe just after midnight in northern CT.
By the time you wake up in the morning and the dawn arrives, a fresh blanket of a coating to a few inches of snow will be on the ground. Then it’s game on.
MORE IMPACTFUL STORM
While this is still slated to be less of an impact the further west you go, the storm track is now expected to come close to or possibly run over Nantucket island. Last night’s and this morning’s guidance has come into better agreement around this westward shift, so totals and impacts are correspondingly going up further west than even yesterday evening’s report stated, which was already starting to creep up.
By late morning to afternoon, through early evening will be the peak/brunt of this storm, and snowfall rates should fall 1-2″ per hour across the WMass region east of the Berkshires and northern CT, with 1/2″ to 1″ hour there, in southeast VT and southwest NH… 2-4″ per hour are possible in northeast CT and CMass.
WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
For folks east of I-91 (and possibly briefly just west of there) there will be blizzard conditions that could develop with wind gusts out of the northeast and north (a nor’eastah!!) between 35-45mph at times, and with heavy snow, visibilities are expected to drop below a 1/4 mile for brief periods, with brief whiteout conditions possible during the afternoon.
Again, this is most likely over CMass and northeast CT, and into southeast portions of WMass east of the I-91 corridor like eastern Hampshire and eastern Hampden Counties.
HEAVY SNOW BAND
I will write more about this in tonight’s comprehensive report, but a very heavy snow band, or multiple bands will set up and that will cause variations in snow totals, as sinking air (subsidence) occurs on either side, which lowers totals there, and we can’t totally know where those bands will set up.
OUTAGES LIMITED IN WMASS (FLUFF FACTOR)
Isolated outages will be possible due to wind gusts up to 45mph out of the north in the afternoon, and out of the northwest at night as the storm rips away to the northeast and lambastes Atlantic Canada.
However, down in southeast MA and parts of the Cape, wetter snow may combine with high wind gusts of 50-80mph (higher half of that range on the Cape, lower half on the south shore) to produce an area of widespread outages.
COLD AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL
This is not good, as it will be very cold during this storm with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits, with wind chills below zero during the afternoon and evening, so charge your devices, gas the car, and do some prep if you live out that way.
STORM’S END
The storm will wind down (like this report will soon) between 8pm and midnight from west to east with lows in the single digits, and a blustery but sunny day on Sunday with highs in the teens to low 20s.
SNOW TOTALS
2-5″:
Southern VT (Bennington County, western Windham)
Taconics of E.NY
5-10″:
Eastern Windham County VT
Cheshire County NH
Berkshires
Western Hilltowns of WMass
Litchfield County CT
8-15″
Central/eastern Franklin & Hampshire Counties MA
Central Hampden County MA
Northern Worcester County MA
Hartford County CT
Western Tolland County CT
1-2′
Eastern Hampden County MA
Southern Worcester County MA
Eastern Tolland and Windham County CT
Outer Cape and Nantucket
2-3′
Eastern MA and Rhode Island
Upper Cape and Martha’s Vineyard
BUST POTENTIAL
This is how it looks now folks. I did allude to the potential for things to come west, though I didn’t initially think it would, but here we are. The future hasn’t happened yet, and this is how it looks this morning. I doubt it would go higher than this, and if it doesn’t go this way, than it would shrink back to my thinking all week long.
But for now?
#ENGAGE
Please stay tuned for a brief mid-day update, and a more comprehensive evening report as our first big snowstorm of the year is on the way.
Have a great day, and I hope things go your way today!
P.S. I am running a clearance sale through This Weekend (then it’s over) for some leftover 2022 Weather Wall Calendars I have in stock, so shoot me a private message and I’ll get back to you with details, or you can order at the link below with coupon code 2022C2, thanks.
https://westernmassweather.com/product/2022-dhtwn-weather-wall-calendar/