UPDATE: POWERFUL NOR’EASTER TO LASH THE CAPE AND EASTERN MA ON SATURDAY… STILL LOOKING LIKE A LIGHT TO MODERATE IMPACT FOR WMASS REGION (LIGHTER WEST, MORE MODERATE EAST)… PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY (MY NEW BAND NAME) REMAINS… DRIER AIR WILL BE EATING UP THE NW FLANK OF THE SNOW SHIELD… 7:15PM WED…
Good evening everybody, we had a beautiful but COLD day today, and those breezes were quite biting at times.
The coldest night of the next week to ten days arrives overnight, with temps already in the single digits to teens currently, and destined to plummet into the single digits below zero, and down to 10 below zero or so in southern VT under clear skies and light to calm wind with high pressure moving through the region.
For Thursday, we’ve got another sunny day with highs in the low to mid 20s and light wind with lows in the teens Thursday night as clouds start to build into the region as a cold front approaches for Friday.
Highs on Friday will reach the upper 20s to low 30s under mostly cloudy skies, and a few snow showers, especially at night as cold air re-establishes itself over the WMass region.
Then we move to Saturday, when we will see two upper level lows phase together somewhere along the southeastern U.S. coastline near the Carolinas, combining with surface low pressure and moisture offshore.
While some guidance has been wildly out of the envelope of reality, there is an eastward trend, which has to do with how, when and where the shortwave over the Dakotas, and the other over the TX/OK region meet up with each other, phase, and help to develop that surface low.
At this point, it appears that the resultant trough over the Appalachians may not pivot in time to bring this storm closer to the western envelope of storm tracks that we’ve been considering over the past two days.
This has to do with very subtle interactions between not only the two shortwaves that will combine in the southeast U.S. but the features driving their paths, which has to do with a ridge over Mexico, and another trough in eastern Quebec.
I think that tomorrow will hopefully begin to coalesce solutions and create more certainty than exists as I type this report, but for now I am leaning toward a storm track over The Benchmark (80 miles south of Nantucket), even though some guidance is WAY east of that, leaving our region with basically nothing, but based on my best assessment of the pattern and “players on the field” I think some guidance will come back west a bit, but not nearly as far west as some guidance was yesterday.
I’ve found that sometimes the atmosphere has a sort of “memory” to it, and this Winter has not been favorable to WMass for snowy storm tracks.
HOLDING STEADY
For now, I am not changing my thinking, which is snow arriving during the pre-dawn hours with a light to moderate snowfall for the WMass region lasting into Saturday evening before ending, with a moderate to major snowfall in CMass, northeast CT and EMass, with blizzard conditions for some in that general neck of the woods.
ROUGH IDEA ON AMOUNTS
2-4″ west of the I-91 (and maybe some sub-2″ amounts in the Berkshires/SVT), 4-8″ east of the I-91 corridor, and 8-16″ in northeast CT, CMass and EMass/RI is my continued broadbrush thinking around general snow totals.
PLEASE NOTE: I would encourage you to lean on the low end of these ranges at this point in time.
The ranges are offered for a reason, which accounts for the complexities involved. That, and snow doesn’t fall in town-sized shapes – it’s amorphous energy.
ON THE SUBJECT OF CERTAINTY
I understand that we as humans crave certainty around future outcomes, just like some sports fans want to know if there favorite player is going to hit a home run at the next at bat, throw a touchdown, or hit a hole in one.
Others want to know if the stock market is going to go up tomorrow so they can sell their stock at a certain price and profit.
Most of us want to know the future so we can advantage ourselves in some way, or get a result we want.
As I continue to report on our weather for this community, I am constantly humbled by how complex and difficult it can be, but I will continue to give you the best information that I can ahead of time to help best predict future outcomes and impacts for the greater WMass region.
I will update you all first thing in the morning, and we’ll see where the trends are then.
Personally, I doubt that we will get more of a light to moderate snowfall in the WMass region – I think that’s the “best” we can expect, if you like snow, but I’ll update you as we go.
Have a great night, and thanks always for reading.
P.S. What I just wrote was not a disclaimer. If I’m wrong, I’ll admit I was wrong, as anybody who has followed me for any length of time over the past 10+ years knows I will do.
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7:00AM-WED: MAJOR NOR’EASTER SETS SIGHTS ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND… PHASING OF UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW AND TRACKS WILL DETERMINE AMOUNTS/IMPACTS… AS OF NOW, LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A LIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL AND WIND IMPACT FOR WMASS REGION, WITH A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR CMASS, NORTHEAST CT, POSSIBLY EASTERNMOST HAMPDEN COUNTY INTO EMASS WHERE A BLIZZARD IS POSSIBLE… MAJOR IMPACTS COULD STILL BACK WEST TOWARDS THE CT RIVER VALLEY, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES… COLD AND SUNNY IN THE INTERIM…
Good morning folks, it’s chilly out there with temps in the single digits to low teens, and it won’t get a heck of a lot “warmer” today as a cold front is sliding through now, with Arctic cold overspreading the region in a slow seep. We’ll jump into our Saturday snowstorm details below, but first I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning folks, I’m going to provide a more comprehensive report this evening with lotsa chahts (that also can be pronounced “lots of charts”, for the non-EMass peeps out there) with the latest information on WMass regional impacts, as uncertainty still continues as to whether our storm is going to track up Buzzids Bay (that’s Buzzards Bay for you, oh forget it) or 100 miles south of Nantucket near The Benchmark.
One result dumps 10-16″ on WMass and gusts up to 50mph, the other is a light to moderate snowstorm here with some wind, but a blizzard in southeast MA and the Cape.
TODAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
For this morning, we’ve got a cold front slowly moving south through the region, and this will help tamp temps down from rising much at all.
Highs should reach the mid teens to low 20s from north to south, but at least we’ll have plenty of sunshine. Still, bundle up as northwest winds should gust to 20mph at times, so the wind chill will nip down into the single digits on occasion.
For tonight, high pressure moves through the region, and temps plummet to what is likely going to be the coldest level we see for at least the next 7-10 days, and maybe longer as A Mildening (Dave’s new springtime mini-novel about a softening of the heart in a cold, tough world) is coming by end of next week as we move into February.
Lows will drop into the single digits below zero, but luckily with the high moving overhead, winds will die down, so wind chill won’t be an issue, really.
For Thursday, the high moves east and we get a modest return flow from the southwest with highs in the low to mid 20s under mostly sunny skies, with high clouds increasing late. Lows will drop into the teens as clouds thicken up a bit with another cold front approaching for Friday.
On Friday into Friday evening, highs will reach the upper 20s to low 30s, and scattered snow showers will develop with a cold front approaching and broad modest lift forming over the region as air begins to be evacuated away in the upper levels with the jet stream moving overhead. Some coatings are possible, and lows will dip into the low to mid teens.
SATURDAY SNOWSTORM
Snow will arrive sometime after midnight, and fall light to moderately and stick by morning.
Two pieces of upper level energy, a northern piece diving southeast through Manitoba and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and a southern piece tracking east through the Deep South toward South Carolina as it “tries” to get just east of the northern piece, with the two phasing somewhere between the central Appalachians and the Carolina coast.
This will form one major upper low which carves out a deep trough in the east, combines with a surface disturbance in the southeast U.S., and the jet stream rapidly diverging air out of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., will cause rapid low pressure falls off the Carolinas, and the upper low will draw the bombing-out surface low up toward the area south of Nantucket.
At this moment, while I am not ruling out a more western track toward Block Island or Martha’s Vineyard and greater impacts in the WMass region, it appears that a track over the Benchmark (80 miles south of Nantucket, so named as it is a classic benchmark for EASTERN MA snowstorms, i.e. Boston) is more likely.
This would produce a light to moderate snowfall over the WMass region, and a major snowfall the further east you go.
A rough idea is 2-4″ west of the I-91, 4-8″ east, and 8-16″ from southern CMass (Sturbridge to Worcester), northeast CT and EMass, with some areas in southeast MA getting close to 2 feet!
North winds are going to rip in EMass, with 50-70mph gusts possible over the Cape and Islands, 40-60mph from Worcester south and east, and 20-40mph in the WMass region.
That’s the ROUGH sketch, folks, and will likely need to be revised, but that gives you an idea.
This will be a fluffy light snow, and it will likely be snowing by the time you wake up on Saturday morning, and continue well into the evening, especially the further south and east you go.
Fair and cold Sunday through Tuesday with sunshine, and by mid to late next week, we should be climbing into the 40s for highs, so this is our shot at a winter storm for the foreseeable future, and I will keep you updated the whole way!
Please stay tuned for my more comprehensive evening report, have a great day, and I hope things go your way today!
P.S. I am running a clearance sale through This Weekend (then it’s over) for some leftover 2022 Weather Wall Calendars I have in stock, so shoot me a private message and I’ll get back to you with details, or you can order at the link below with coupon code 2022C2, thanks.
https://westernmassweather.com/product/2022-dhtwn-weather-wall-calendar/