ALERT: SUBSTANTIAL ICING EVENT TOMORROW MORNING… TRAVEL DISCOURAGED IN THE MORNING ONCE SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN STARTS, WHICH IS BETWEEN 6-9AM FROM THE BERKSHIRES TO CMASS… STEADIEST ICING OCCURS ALONG MA/CT LINE NORTHWARD… HEAVIEST ICING LOOKS TO OCCUR IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, NORTHWEST HILLTOWNS UP INTO SVT WHERE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION MAY FORM THROUGH SUNDAY… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE UP ACROSS THE GREATER WMASS REGION… 7pm Saturday…
Good evening everybody, as you know, we have Arctic air set to blast into the region late Sunday night on gusty northwest winds that may reach speeds of 30-40mph in the higher elevations, and up to 30mph or so in the valley. Lake effect snow showers will reach parts of our western high elevations (Berkshires, SVT, western hills, etc.), and brutal cold will be unleashed into the region Monday night through Wednesday morning, during which wind chills will dip to as much as 20 below zero, and highs on Tuesday will only reach the single digits to teens.
I will expand on and refine those details starting with tomorrow evening’s report, but you’ve been adequately warned of the upcoming cold snap.
There’s also snow potential for next weekend, but for this report, I am focused exclusively on what looks to be, for some, an ice storm tomorrow.
SUNDAY MORNING TRAVEL DISCOURAGED
To start, our current temperatures are already in the single digits to teens for much of the WMass area, with some lows 20s in northern CT and southern CMass… at 7pm!
High pressure is sliding east through the region, and later tonight we’ll get on the back/west side of it with southerly and eventually southwesterly flow developing.
This will serve to raise our temps after midnight into the low to mid 20s by morning before precipitation starts.
Still, it will be plenty cold to absolutely start as a mix of snow and sleet in the northern half of the Berkshires/Taconics and SVT, even into the northwest hilltowns of WMass (western Hampshire and Franklin Counties).
In those areas, snow and ice starts between 6-8am mostly likely, then between 7-9am in the rest of the WMass region from west to east (southern Berkshires and Pioneer Valley down into northwest CT toward 7 or 8am…. southwest NH, CMass and northeast CT toward 8 or 9am, maybe as late as 10am, but likely before that).
Some coatings of snow and sleet are possible before snow ceases and we go to all sleet for a time, and then to freezing rain, which will become the predominant precip type by late morning into the noon hour.
While by early to mid afternoon, areas from Northampton south, southeast and east should flip to plain rain with temps rising into the mid 30s or so, I am concerned that freezing rain will be prolonged and last ALL afternoon in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, Taconics, northern Litchfields, western Hartford County CT, and up into SVT and SWNH.
The heavier precip looks to fall in the central/northern Berkshires into the western hills of Franklin and Hampshire Counties up into SVT east of Bennington and west of Brattleboro in the southern Green Mountains, and will mostly fall as freezing rain after earlier snow/sleet mix.
In those areas 0.20″-0.35″ of ice accretion may form, which with fresh snow still on some secondary and tertiary roads will cause treacherous and, in some cases, impossible driving conditions.
Areas east and south of that general northwest MA to southern VT zone (southern Berkshires, northwest CT, Franklin County MA, southwest NH, and northern Worcester County) should see more like a tenth to up to two-tenths of an inch of ice, which is still plenty to cause hazardous travel.
Central/eastern Hampshire and Hampden Counties plus southern Worcester County in MA, as well as Tolland and Windham Counties in CT will see some sleet and freezing rain with icy travel in the morning as well, but by noon to early afternoon, we should warm up enough to flip those areas to plain rain showers, but I will update on all this tomorrow morning first thing.
An icy Sunday morning lies ahead, and for some, and icy Sunday all day is looking likely.
After the bulk of the precip moves through by 2-4pm, freezing drizzle and plain drizzle may linger, depending on where you’re located.
It looks awful weather-and-travel-wise tomorrow morning, so I would consider at least delaying travel to the afternoon, and depending on where you live, staying put altogether, if errands or other issues can be put off to a cold but quite sunny Monday, despite a few snow showers in northwest MA and SVT from the lake effect bands.
That’s how it looks now, anyway, and I will update you in the morning.
Have a great night…
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NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF WMASS, CMASS, SVT, AND MUCH OF N.CT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW MORNING INTO AFTERNOON… TODAY IS COLD AND SUNNY… TOMORROW IS CLOUDY AND ICY… ARCTIC BLAST WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, READY YOUR TAUNTAUNS… 8:20AM SAT…
Good morning everybody, I hope you slept well last night. The last dream I had before waking up was with someone who devised a new fret numbering system to teach me the notes they wanted me to play in a bass line they wrote. I was just getting the hang of it before being pulled back into this world.
Might have to pick up my bass, plug in, and play a bunch later today.
But for now, we’ve got weather to run through!
Today features a big ol’ high pressure system that will flex to about 1038mb as it passes through our region.
This means sunshine, slackening wind, but cold temps with highs in the low to upper 20s from the northern Berkshires and SVT down into the lower Pioneer Valley and points east. The peaks of the southern Greens might not even crest 20º today with that afternoon snow pack from upslope snow showers that developed.
For tonight, clouds will increase as we establish our low temps into the mid to upper teens on the earlier side.
As a low center tracks well north of us, it will be dragging its warm front eastward towards New England.
This will induce a southerly flow, which will start to inch temps upward by morning, possibly into the low 20s by that time.
As this happens, milder/moister air will be running into this cold dome at the surface, which will force that air to rise up and over it, which will produce precipitation in the Berkshires by around 8am or so.
This cold dome is likely to be half a mile thick or so, which would be enough thickness to allow melted snowflakes to refreeze into ice pellets, a/k/a sleet, before reaching us at the surface.
So I expect sleet to the be precip type we start out with tomorrow morning, with possibly some snow mixed in over the northern Berkshires/Taconics and SVT before it goes to sleet there too.
Then we should transition to freezing rain as the morning progresses, and that should last into the afternoon.
I think areas south of Northampton, essentially central Hampden County and the southern Pioneer Valley floor and points south and east to rise into the mid 30s by early afternoon and change to plain rain before the precip ends.
However, in the Berkshires, Taconics, Litchfields, western Hartford County CT, western hilltowns of MA, SVT, SWNH, and even in the valley from Northampton north, extending into northern Worcester County, we could remain freezing rain or freezing drizzle for the duration, with between a tenth to maybe as much as two-tenths of an inch of ice accretion on all surfaces.
If the warm air wins out faster, this is an ice to rain situation, but RARELY does cold air in the mid teens get scoured that quickly from the valley floor, which acts as a cold air sink many times.
Also, we have a cold front coming in behind this system, so it’s not like there is a big push of warmth that will be putting us into the 40s on Monday, so I am concerned for travel impacts tomorrow.
By Sunday night, a multi-lake lake effect snow event will commence as the coldest air of the season begins its southeastward trek toward New England.
This will send some snow showers into the Berkshires/SVT at times after midnight Monday (remember that midnight Monday means Monday morning at 12:00am, not Monday night at 11:59pm).
It will also kick up northwest winds gusting 25-35mph and with lows in the teens will send wind chills into the single digits easily.
Monday through Wednesday looks fair but quite cold, so prepare to protect your animals and your humans, especially late Monday night into early Wednesday morning – that’s the core of the cold.
Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 20s with lows -5º to +5º.
Highs Tuesday will be in the upper singles to mid teens as Tundra Time arrives. Lows are going below zero for many of us Tuesday night with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 20s and lows in the teens.
Then by late week we should get into a southwesterly return flow which will put our high temps up into the 30s, which is fairly seasonable.
By next weekend, we could be looking at another winter storm, so stay tuned for updates, and have a great Saturday!
I will update you on tomorrow’s icing event this evening…