VERY LOW RISK FOR A TORNADO IN SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, TACONICS AND THE WESTERN LITCHFIELD HILLS AROUND SUNSET… A BALMY, GUSTY, ANOMALOUSLY WARM SATURDAY LEADS TO A FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS, DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING ALONG THE NY-CT/MA/VT BORDER BETWEEN 4:30-5:30PM AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER WMASS REGION, ENDING BY MIDNIGHT… ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR… BLUSTERY AND COLDER SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY, THEN A MILDENING… SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND… MY 2022 WEATHER WALL CALENDAR SALE LAUNCHES TODAY, ORDER LINK BELOW… 8:40AM SAT…
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Good morning everybody, we’ve got a lot of changeable weather to move through this weekend, so I am just going to jump into the double–dashed details and let ‘er rip.
LAST SUMMAH-RY DAY SUMMAH-RY
–The warm front is north of the WMass region as of this writing, and the showers and a couple of thunderstorms that were associated with it are tracking away as well
–Temps are up, already in the low to mid 60s with some upper 60s present as well!
–Humidity is coming up, and dew point temps will peak into the low to mid 60s today, which is quite humid for mid-October historically
–After a calmer morning, southerly wind gusts are expected to pick up and gust over 30mph at times throughout the region ahead of the incoming cold front for tonight
–I would not be surprised to see a few 35-40mph gusts in some of the mountainous areas of northwest MA and southern VT
–Highs will surge into the low to mid 70s, and some upper 70s are possible in the Hampden County lowlands south toward Hartford in north-central CT
–We’ll have breaks of sunshine, but more clouds than sun are expected today
–By mid afternoon we’ll turn our attention westward, as a strong cold front moves into the Hudson Valley of eastern NY driven by a potent low-mid level jet streak with good air divergence in the upper levels (i.e. air will diverging, or moving away from the area, which acts like a vacuum to help with raising the air from the surface)
–While instability will lessen the further east you travel from the NY/MA state line, strong wind shear will be moving into the region
–Given strong southerly with low/mid level westerlies moving into the region, there will be some lower level turning of the air as well, so we’ll have speed shear and directional shear, which poses a low risk for a brief tornado, more so in southeast NY, but not impossible for the southern Berkshires, western Litchfield County and the southern Taconics
–By about 5pm, a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms will be tracking into SVT, the Taconics, western Berkshires, and Litchfield County
–Some isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with this line, which is expected to weaken as it tracks through SVT, SWNH, and the Pioneer Valley and into CMass/north-central/northeast CT, clearing the entire region by midnight
–Around an inch or less of rain is expected, but a few mountainous spots may overachieve
–Lows will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s as our wind shifts tonight from the south to northwest behind the front
–As James Taylor crooned, lord knows when the cold wind blows, it’ll turn your head around, and that’ll be the case tomorrow
–Not that it will be cold, but it will be much cooler and blustery with northwest winds gusting to 25mph or so, and highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s as dewpoint temps crash into the 40s with much drier air arriving
–In addition, a partly sunny day is expected, with afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds developing, and some scattered lake effect rain showers reaching the Taconics, southern Greens, Berkshires, Litchfields, and western hilltowns in the afternoon and early evening
–Lows Sunday night will plummet into the upper 30s to mid 40s
–Monday looks a bit breezy too, and colder, with highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s, so bundle!
–A partly sunny day is expected and a few afternoon spot showers are possible due to the cold pool aloft tracking overhead, which will foster some atmospheric instability
–Monday night was looking frosty, but not as much now, given that more clouds are expected and the breeze may still be up, which will limit radiational cooling effects
–Lows will again be in the upper 30s to low 40s
–Tuesday may see some lingering effects of this upper trough that will be helping to drive the cooler, somewhat unstable conditions of Sunday and Monday, with temps remaining mostly in the 50s, but with increasing sunshine
–Wednesday through late week looks milder, highs in the low to mid 60s, but with possible scattered showers by late week
–A coastal storm is possible next weekend, but that’s a long way off
The bottom line is that today and tonight’s weather changes mark another step down into deeper Autumn, so if you love summer, get outside and soak up these 70s, folks.
Check back later for updates, have a great day, and please buy my new 2022 Weather Wall Calendar! It’s got great fan photos by Rob Hincks, Mike Girardi, Paul Shoul, Karin Baker, Cathy Ann Lee, Hilary Ince, Janice Luzzi, Linda Repasky, and Sean St. Marie, and it helps support my work here, if you happen to find it useful.
CLICK TO SECURELY ORDER ONLINE:
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