7:20A-FRI: HURRICANE HENRI IS COMING TO NEW ENGLAND… WESTWARD TRACK TRENDS CONTINUE… LANDFALL OCCURS SUNDAY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ANYWHERE FROM HYANNIS, MA WESTWARD TO CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND, NY… FIRST LANDFALLING NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE IN 30 YEARS SINCE HURRICANE BOB… POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR INLAND FLOODING WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN CORE SETS UP, MOST LIKELY WORCESTER COUNTY DOWN INTO NORTHEAST CT AND POINTS EAST… WIND DAMAGE LESS OF A CONCERN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO… COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED…

Good morning everybody, I am going to be focusing most of this report on Henri. Suffice it to say, it’ll be warm (mid 70s to mid 80s from high terrain to low, lows 60s to near 70) today and tomorrow, very humid, with a couple showers today, scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow… not much to go over, really, in comparison to the first landfalling New England hurricane in over 30 years, so I’m diving into Henri coverage, let’s go.

I am growing increasingly concerned about the potential impacts from Hurricane Henri. We’re still 2 days away, but the track envelope is narrowing now, not expanding, and it continues to indicate that our upper low to the west will dig more southerly into the mid-Appalachian Mountain chain, which will help to pull and pivot Henri more northerly, and then north-northwesterly into southern New England, with the current likely track through Newport, RI up into Worcester, MA on Sunday afternoon as it weakens and slows down, and then pivots east and away on Monday.

I’ve attached a bunch of graphics and you will need to click each one to get more info about each. If there is no caption when you click, that means I am working on completing them, so you can come back in a bit, and trust that I will have them all filled out.

And before I go into storm setup below, here is the Hurricane Local Statement for southern New England:

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM NWS:
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ010&warncounty=MAC015&firewxzone=MAZ010&local_place1=Hadley%20MA&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=42.35&lon=-72.5833

STORM SETUP
As it stands now, the waters immediately south of New England are a bit cooler, and since this storm system will likely maintain its tropical characteristics through landfall and be tracking more slowly than say the Hurricane of 1938, it should weaken a bit as it approaches land.

Sea surface temps are PLENTY warm just east of the Mid-Atlantic region and all the way down and off of the U.S. eastern seaboard, and Henri (currently a strong tropical storm) will be exiting an area of stronger wind shear as it continues to track west-northwest (it’s already begun the northward turn toward New England).

As the upper low to our west strengthens and digs south, and as Henri exits strong wind shear and enters a calmer area where sea surface temps are very warm, it will strengthen, and it could reach Category 2 or even Category 3 status, which would make it a major hurricane, heading north, toward New England.

In addition, a “downstream ridge” which is an area of higher pressures are forecast to develop east of Henri, which act as a right-sided bumper, and when combined with the upper trough over the Appalachians as the left-sided bumper, Henri has nowhere to go but up and into southeastern New England.

Now, while I don’t think this storm will have the impacts the Hurricane of 1938 had, this is what I’ve been worrying about for years and years at this point.

Again, it very likely will NOT be a 1938 type event, but it will be a major tropical system impacting New England, and we’re not used to it up here, as it happens very infrequently.

TIMING
By Sunday morning, we’ll be clouding right up as Henri makes its approach, likely tracking north-northwestward anywhere between Nantucket Sound (between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket) west to central Long Island. In fact, this track may exhibit the infamous Sandy left-hook as it comes ashore.

As the morning progresses, Henri will be approaching the shoreline, and likely make landfall sometime between Noon and 3pm along the southern New England coastline, or possibly central to eastern Long Island. My believe is that it will run right over Block Island to Newport area in southern RI.

WIND
This would bring very damaging wind gusts of 60-90mph into Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod, as well as areas just east of the hurricane’s low center.

As for us here in WMass and CMass down into northern CT, wind gusts won’t be nearly as problematic, probably more like 20-40mph from west to east. It will be more the potential for heavy rain and possible flash flooding that we’ll have to be on guard for.

FLOODING
While most of us will see 1-3″ of rain from Henri, there is going to be stripe of VERY heavy rain, as in potentially 4-8″ of rainfall, and currently I think that favors northeast CT (Windham and Tolland Counties) and Worcester County (a/k/a CMass) east into Middlesex County, and down into RI and southeast MA.

This is because Henri is forecast to make landfall, slow down, possibly stall, then lollygag east and out to sea, slowly. This would DUMP rain on some areas, and would likely cause moderate to major flooding across those areas.

I’m serious when I say that if you live in eastern CT, CMass, EMass, and RI, and you live in a flood-prone area near a river, stream, tributary, etc., you need to have a flood evacuation plan in place, today, in case the worst comes to pass.

You saw the photos of what happened in central MA and northeast CT yesterday, I take it, yes? Major flooding happened very quickly… from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred.

Let me be clear: I am not being a fear monger or weather alarmist/hypist when I say this, so if you feel that way, you can stuff it back where it came from, though you may think I’m being that way if you just arrived to this decade-old page and resource.

Everybody who has been around knows that I rarely use language like this, rarely. This is a potentially serious and historic weather event unfolding for southern New England, especially east of the I-91 corridor.

I’ll close with saying that being prepared for outlier major weather events is prudent and puts you in a more powerful, responsive position, so that you can perhaps help others if needed.

STORM SURGE
2-5 feet of storm surge is anticipated along the south coasts of MA and RI, a little less in CT. This storm moves in during astronomically high tides, so coastal flooding is likely to occur, so folks with boating interests and coastal interests should plan accordingly.

TYPICAL PREPARATION ITEMS
–Batteries
–Potable water
–Non-perishable food
–Gassed-up vehicles
–Charged-up devices
–Plans for Medical devices that need power/cooling
–Cash on hand

CONCLUSION
I could go on, but you get the point. This storm will be impacting us from about Sunday noon through about Monday morning into early afternoon, and I will update and refine the timing of impacts as we get closer.

The rest of the following week looks humid, showery at times, warm in the 80s for highs and maybe a cool down by late week with lower humidity but for now, we focus on Henri.

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