TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE UP FOR SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND… TROPICAL STORM ELSE LIKELY TO BRING MORE DRENCHING RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON… SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HARTFORD COUNTY AT 6:45PM… SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AT 6:50PM… MORE STRONG STORMS ARE TRACKING ENE INTO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, SVT, AND POSSIBLY WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY THIS EARLY EVENING… 7:00PM WED…
Good evening everybody, thanks for all of the reports today. We still have some showers and storms to contend with during the first part of this night.
We have a severe-warned storm in the Hartford area tracking east into central Tolland and central Windham Counties, with a few showers over Hampden County currently.
In addition we have a train of smaller thunderstorms, some of which may be strong and showers that will track into the northern half of the northern Berkshires/Taconics, and western Franklin County, and possibly grazing southwesternmost VT through about 8pm.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s with patchy fog developing.
For Thursday, we’re going to have a frontal boundary draped right through the WMass region, likely somewhere between the MA/CT line and the Rt. 2 corridor – north of that front highs will be around 70º, and south of it around 80º.
We won’t know exactly where the front sets up until it does, so temps are tricky tomorrow.
We do know that the front will focus more scattered showers over our region, and a few thunderstorms are possible, but nothign severe is expected like the past two days (we’ve had flooding in Great Barrington and northern CT today, along with tree damage and outages in spots).
Lows Thursday night will bottom out into the mid to upper 60s.
The next impact to deal with is Tropical Storm Elsa. We’re going to have an upper level system to our northwest over the Great Lakes, and Elsa will be ripping up the eastern seaboard quickly, and likely tracking off of the Delmarva or even Cape May NJ coastline Friday morning, and make a bee line somewhere between Montauk Point and Martha’s Vineyard Island the way it looks now.
Any wind that develops either from restrengthening over the warmer waters east of the Mid-Atlantic coast and/or interaction with this upper level system and Elsa likely stays southeast of our region, though it could bring gusts up to 35mph or so in northeast CT and southeast Worcester County.
I just have a hard time believing we’re going to get any appreciable wind from Elsa.
Rain, however, WILL be appreciable, especially east of the I-91 corridor.
Starting later Thursday night into Friday afternoon we could see another 1-3″ of rainfall from this system.
Highs on Friday will be in the 75-80º range with lows in the low to mid 60s with a few more showers possible.
The weekend definitely looks nicer, with partial sunshine, highs in the 75-80º range, and a few afternoon instability showers scattered about, and this pattern should last into at least Monday.
Have a great evening, and watch out for some more (but likely less intense) thunderstorms and showers in our region tonight.
—–
n Mas
TROPICAL STORM ELSA TRACK POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO WMASS, MUST BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND NOW WIND IMPACTS FOR EAST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR… ANOTHER LINE OR CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN CMASS AND MUCH OF N.CT TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS… MORE THURSDAY SHOWERS, THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE RAINY… THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT BETTER STILL… 7AM WED…
Good morning everybody, our active weather pattern continues with lots to talk about. Because all I can see this morning our double–dashes across my field of vision, I’m going to take that as a divination that you’re telepathically telling me you want hyphens and you want them now!!
Ok, Ok, I get it, calm down, I’m going to dash things out below, patience grasshoppers!
Before I get going, did anyone in the Brookfield area of Worcester County hear of a waterspout that touched down yesterday? It might have been a “gustnado”, which are little tornadoes that can kick up along gust fronts of thunderstorms. Let me know.
SUMMAHRY
–We’ve got another hot and humid day on the way with highs again reaching the mid 80s to low 90s across much of the region, with perhaps 80-85º readings over the SVT highlands
–We should see mostly sunny skies develop this morning after morning burns off where it has formed
–Dewpoint temps will remain high in the mid 60s to low 70s which will produce plenty of instability this afternoon, with lots of moisture present to help fuel shower and storm growth later
–By the mid afternoon, we should start to see showers and thunderstorms approach from NY state as a cold front now over northern New England and northern NY sags south towards southern New England
–While a shower or storm is possible before 4pm, it looks like we will again be focused on the 4-8pm timeframe for showers, downpours and strong to severe thunderstorms to bloom and move through the region
–Isolated damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall are again the main threats, with hail possible
–For tonight, the front passes to our south and temps will drop into the low to mid 60s with winds shifting around to the north and northeast after midnight and into Thursday
–For Thursday, our sagged-south cold front will still be nearby and become stationary for a time
–We also will simply have to see how far south it goes, because it may bifurcate the MA/northern CT latitude with cooler temps north and warmer temps south, though I think it should track down into southern CT, putting the WMass region in the cooler sector with highs in the 70s vs. the 80s south of the front
–Because the front will be near, showers and a thunderstorm are possible tomorrow during the morning and afternoon
–Then we have to watch Thursday through Friday as what is expected to be Tropical Storm Elsa may be interacting with an upper level system to our northwest and the stalled front to produce enhanced rainfall Thursday night across the region
–Lows Thursday night will be in the mid 60s and showers, some heavy, are expected
–On Friday, Elsa makes its closest pass to the region, and to be honest some guidance has it running right over WMass or CMass
–I personally don’t think this will happen, I am favoring a track over somewhere between Block Island and Nantucket Island, which would bring tropical rainfall to our region, especially east of the I-91 corridor with a few inches of rain possible
–But if the more inland track does verify, we could be dealing with wind impacts in our region of 30-50mph gusts, so stay tuned for updates
–So Friday looks rainy, and potentially windy at times, with highs in the 70s and some remnant showers or a storm Friday night with lows in the 60s
–Saturday through Monday looks like an improvement with at least partial sunshine and a few afternoon showers each day with highs upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s, so improvements are on the way!
Keep tuned here today as I will keep you updated on incoming showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, and I will keep you updated on the potential impacts from Elsa as well to end the week.
Have a great day!