4TH OF JULY FORECAST LOOKING DECENT FOR THE AFTERNOON… AN UPPER LOW BRINGS MORE SHOWERS TODAY, HEAVY AT TIMES… BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO FOCUS MORE OVER CMASS AND NORTHEAST CT INTO THE NIGHT… ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ADDING TO THE SEVERAL INCHES SOME HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED… TOMORROW AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM LATE IN THE DAY POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY OK, PARTLY SUNNY, MILDER… MONDAY IS GORGEOUS, TUES/WED HOT AND HUMID…T-STORMS WED. EVENING, THEN HURRICANE ELSA’S REMNANTS MAY RAIN OVER US LATE WEEK…8:05AM SAT…
Good morning everybody, yesterday we received anywhere from a quarter inch up to 2.5″ of rainfall across the broader WMass region, and even got 3″ in parts of north-central CT!
Our upper low is sitting over the western Catskills of SE NY and Poconos of NE PA and will slowly track east into western CT and southern New England today and tonight, exiting our region by tomorrow afternoon.
This upper low is more reminiscent of late Winter or early Spring, pulling much colder air aloft over the region.
In fact, about 3 miles up it is only 0ºF!! We may even set record cold max temps today with high translating at the surface into the upper 50s for many of us, and maybe the mid 50s up in SVT/SWNH with continued northeasterly flow .
Check out the attached graphic to see high temps today, and you can see the upper low over our heads “imprinted” on expected temps at the surface in the northeast U.S.!
This very cold air aloft will also produce steep mid-level lapse rates, or temperature gradients, and when combined with the lift produced from the low’s vorticity advection into the region (meaning large-scale spin is moving across area) this should produce enhanced lift, and therefore moderate to heavy rainfall at times in showers that blossom as the day wears on.
These showers will be slow moving like yesterday, and could also produce ponding on roadways, street flooding, etc.
For this evening and tonight, scattered showers will be possible anywhere, along with mist, but the heavier activity should translate east as the low tracks east into CMass, NE CT, RI and EMass.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s.
For the 4th of July, a better day will no doubt visit us, but it’s not going to a “killer summer day” by any stretch.
Still, we should see some partly sunny skies at times, clouds at others (especially in the morning, with a few isolated showers).
Highs will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s, as the low continued to track east and away from us. However, we will still be under the influence of some instability, and a late day shower or thunderstorm may pop overhead for some of us. Lows will be in the mid 50s for most.
For Monday, a much nicer day arrives, though as a one-day transition between below-seasonable temps to above-seasonable temps.
Expect partly sunny skies on average with highs in the 75-80º range, still rather dry in terms of humidity, with a late day shower or storm possible as a warm front approaches the region.
At night, humidity will definitely increase, and lows will only drop into the low to mid 60s – some 5 degrees warmer than today’s highs!
On Tuesday, the heat will again be hot (though not as much as our recent heat wave) with highs reaching the mid 80s to low 90s and very muggy conditions, and a possible shower or storm late day. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s, continued humid.
Wednesday will lower in temps a bit, but still be very warm with highs in the 80s and continued humid.
By the late day or evening, a cold front is expected to approach with showers and thunderstorms passing through the region.
This front may slow down as it passes through, and may hook up with the remnants of Hurricane Elsa which is expected to run through the Caribbean, north into FL and northeast near New England, probably southeast of us.
This may bring heavy rainfall by Thursday or Friday, but I will update you on that as we get closer.
Have a great day, and stay warm, which is a weird thing to say in early July!