Good evening everybody, we’ve got a seriously gorgeous mid-latitude cyclone centered over western Illinois this evening.
With New England positioned on its eastern flank, copious moderate to heavy precipitation is being drawn like a siphon south to north along the eastern U.S. up and into New England, arriving after midnight for the most part.
Temps are currently in the mid to upper 30s in the CT River and Housatonic River valleys into northeast CT and CMass and up into SW.NH, with low to mid 30s in eastern Berkshires and adjacent western hilltowns, low to mid 40s in the Springfield/Hartford Metro regions, and even upper 20s in southern VT, which is the area that looks to get pasted with heavy wet snow from this first round through tomorrow morning, and again with additional light to moderate powdery accumulations tomorrow night into Sunday.
In fact, some folks along the spine of the southern Greens in eastern Bennington (Woodford) and western Windham County (Mt. Snow, Stratton) could see around or over a foot of heavy wet snow with another 3-6″ of powder by Sunday at noon – that means some 18″ amounts, while outliers, are possible.
For where most of the humans of our region, actually reside, lesser amounts are expected, and will be largely dependent on precip intensity combined with higher elevation.
The rain and snow falls around midnight to 10am. I will do my best to detail amounts by region below, there will be busts in here because it is so elevation-dependent, we don’t have very cold air in place ahead of the storm, and there is no cold air being drawn in from the north at all levels.
REGIONS FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME MIXED SNOW
–The Pioneer Valley floor from the MA/VT border south through north-central CT, northeast CT, and also including central/eastern Hampshire, central/eastern Hampden, southern Worcester County
REGIONS FOR A COATING TO 2″ OF SNOW WITH SLEET/ RAIN
–Much of southwest NH, except for the Monadnock Region
–Eastern Franklin County and northern Worcester County south of Rt. 2
–Southern Berkshire County and Litchfield County CT
–Taconics south of I-90
–The Brattleboro region/eastern Windham County near the CT River
REGIONS FOR 2-6″ OF SNOW WITH MIXED SLEET/RAIN
–The eastern Berkshires north of I-90
–The Taconics north of I-90
–Western Hampshire and western Franklin Counties
–Northernmost Worcester County north of Rt. 2
–The Monadnock Region of eastern Cheshire County
–Southwestern Bennington County/City of Bennington
REGIONS FOR 6-12+” OF HEAVY WET SNOW
–Eastern and northern Bennington County VT
–Western Windham County VT
–Possibly even parts of northwestern Franklin County and northeast Berkshires for low end of that range
Please note that southerly and southeasterly winds will likely be light below 1500 feet, but on some of the highest peaks above 2000 feet or 3000 feet, the wind may be above the inversion, and gust to 40mph, causing outages even before dawn, though those should be fewer in number compared to the folks who lose power due to receiving 6″ or more of heavy wet snow.
By early tomorrow morning, the high terrain above 1500 feet should be snowing hard in spots, possibly up to an inch per hour at times with big dendrite-y snowflakes filling the air.
A dry slot will punch through the region from southwest to northeast by late morning, providing us with more showery precipitation, and then it should cut off by early afternoon, with the exception of perhaps areas of the southern Greens.
Highs tomorrow will reach the low to mid 40s, with lows in the mid to upper 20s.
The wind will shift from south/southeast to west and as our secondary storm that forms tonight off of the DelMarVa Peninsula will then track over eastern Long Island, into central MA, and lift into the crown of Maine, pulling colder and moist Great Lakes air eastward into our region.
This will produce additional powdery snow showers in the Taconics, Berkshires, Litchfields, SVT and western hilltowns tomorrow evening and overnight into Sunday morning.
The lower terrain of those areas will see an additional coating to 2″ of snow by Sunday noon, with another 2-5″ in the higher terrain areas like the southern Greens in VT, where it will be a full-on winter wonderland!
Sunday is blustery and cold with highs in the low to mid 30s, west winds gusting as high as 40mph, so a few more isolated outages may result.
Fair weather returns Monday and Tuesday, with a Clipper low and some snow showers Wednesday, and our next chance at accumulating snow by Thursday night into Friday.
We’re a long way off for those events, so I am going to stay focused on what’s in front of us.
I may update again late tonight if necessary, otherwise I’ll be up early in the morning checking things out and keeping you updated.
Thanks so much for your readership and support, I’m grateful to have such a wonderful audience as you all.
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[BERKSHIRES FREEZING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY OTHER SPOTS… ANY MORNING SUN GIVES WAY TO CLOUDS… RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT… ACCUMULATING AND PLOWABLE SNOW EXPECTED FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET WEST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR… RAIN AND SNOW ENDS BY NOON TOMORROW… MOUNTAIN/HILLTOWN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, BLUSTERY SUNDAY, WINDS GUST TO 40MPH… TRANQUIL EARLY NEXT WEEK… 7:15AM FRI]
Good morning everybody, it’s Bulletization Friday where double-dashes are free for all to consume. Have as many as you want! Here, I’ll start as an Official Double-Dash Purveyor (ODDP):
POINTS OF SALIENCY
–It’s in the upper 20s to low 30s this morning
–Patchy dense fog has formed in places, especially in the Berkshires with visibilities down near a quarter-mile
–Sub-freezing surface temps and fog will produce slippery/icy spots, and we may see those in other parts of WMass, so be alert this morning
–Fog breaks up, some sunny patches expected early, but high clouds are streaming in from our storm over the eastern Plains which is hurling it’s cold front and more clouds at us, so we cloud up today
–Highs reach the mid to upper 30s, and we stay dry
–We’re dry this evening as well, and lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s
–I believe Winter Weather Advisories are likely to be hoisted for western Hampshire and western Franklin Counties, including at least the northern Berkshires, if not all of Berkshire County later. I am not sure about western Hampden County yet, it’s on the fence for impacts though the Town of Chester might as well be considered part of western Hampshire for this report
–Our storm now over Iowa sort of drifts southeast and spawns a new low pressure system off of the east coast
–This tracks northeast right through southern New England
–Where EXACTLY it does so, will be key to determining if enough colder air gets held in place above 1000-1500 feet in elevation to produce what could be a moderate snowstorm in the eastern (especially northeastern) Berkshires, and western Hampshire and western Franklin County hilltonws, to even a major one up in southern VT 10-15 miles to either side of the border of Bennington and Windham Counties
–While some of the lower hilltowns like Williamsburg, eastern Conway, Westhampton, Huntington (those “types” of hilltowns) could see some lighter accumulations or snow and rain mix, much of the valley and points southa and east should see mostly rain
AMOUNTS
–I think the southern Greens as described above could see 6-10″ of snow from this system, and that would cause some power outages up that way, as it will be heavy and wet, with some westerly gusts on the backside for Saturday
–I think the eastern Berkshires into western Franklin, western Hampshire and even the western Hampden County hilltowns could see 2-6″ of snow accumulation, with some rain mixed in later… these amounts may be seen in northern Worcester County, the highest hills in eastern Franklin County and the Monadnock Region in SW.NH
–A coating to 3″ is possible in hills below 1500 feet in WMass, CMass, and the northern Litchfield Hills in NW.CT, as well as areas north of Rt. 2
–Amounts may vary significantly in the same town, depending on topography.
–It will be snowing in the highest terrain tomorrow morning when we wake up, and raining in the valleys.
–Precipitation winds down by noon tomorrow as highs reach the low to mid 40s for a day, the mildest day we’ll see in at least a week
–Evening lake effect and upslope snow showers develop over the Berkshires, Litchfields, Taconics, western hilltowns, and SVT as our storm pulls away, and west winds pick up by Sunday
–Additional light accumulations of a coating to 2″ of more powdery snow are possible
–Lows Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 20s, with highs in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday as west west winds gust 30-40mph at times with a blustery day under partly sunny skies
–Monday and Tuesday looks tranquil and seasonably cold with highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s
–More snow showers with a Clipper system are possible Wednesday, and a bigger snow event is possible Thursday night into Friday
I will update again tonight before our next storm moves in and will refine things then.
Have a great day!