Good evening everybody, did you catch my snark?
The fact is, I see some online weather outlets tossing map candy around online all day like confetti at a municipal parade, and I just can’t do it.
I respect your nervous systems too much to jerk your already-strained attention around and put up 8 maps a day of possible storm (and snow accumulation) solutions just to get shares/followers, even though I know for a fact that because I’m unwilling to do that, I am not reaching as many people as I could be.
For that, I rely on you to help spread the word, so at least for whenever big weather is on the way, please share if you feel so moved.
Thank you so much. :-)
WHAT WE KNOW
–We know that a storm is on the way
–We know that it is extremely likely to pass to our south, keeping us on the cold side of the storm
–We know that it won’t be all that cold before the storm arrives
–We know that cold high pressure is likely to be well west-northwest of our region, so a pure Arctic cold tap is not as likely
–We know that at least WMass, CMass and northern CT will see some rainfall Friday night into Saturday, and it’s fairly likely that SVT and SWNH will be included in that too
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
However, despite all of that, we won’t really have a handle until tomorrow on the likely complex interaction of 1) our southern cutoff low pressure system that’s destined to track somewhere off of the VA or DE coastline in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning, and 2) our upper level northern stream system that is set to phase with our coastal low, helping it to develop rapidly on Saturday.
For tonight, clouds increase with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
FRIDAY RAIN ON THE WAY
For Friday, the initial interaction between our upper level northern system and our eventual coastal low will cause an east-northeastwardly tracking line of rain showers (generally light in intensity) to start working into the WMass and northern CT region in the afternoon and evening.
In fact, if precip gets in here fast enough by tomorrow morning, some high terrain areas west of the CT River could see a mix with snow, but then rain is expected.
Highs will reach the 45-50º range under overcast skies, and lows will dip into the low to mid 30s as our storm starts interacting with the upper level low, strengthening, and reaching the Mid-Atlantic coastline overnight.
This will cause some rain to mix with snow very early Saturday morning in the high terrain.
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Stay Comfy and Warm This Winter, or Give
That Holiday Gift to Friends and Family This Year
DHTWN Apparel Sale Ends Sunday 12/6 (SHOP LINK): https://www.bonfire.com/dhtwn-2020-holidays/
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STORM TRACK IS KEY FOR BIG
CHANGES OVER SMALL DISTANCES
For Saturday, everything will come down to how fast or slow the interaction with the northern stream piece is, which will influence the storm track.
For now, I think we see a track somewhere between Nantucket and 50 miles south of there, north of “The Benchmark”, which is 40ºN/70ºW (about 75 miles south of Nantucket Island).
This would produce a 4-8″ snowfall in the Berkshires, Litchfields, Taconics, western hilltowns up into southern VT, southwest NH, as well Franklin County into the hills of northern Worcester County, with 2-4″ in Hampshire and Hampden Counties east of the hills, down into northern CT and southern CMass.
That is generally the same thinking as I expressed this morning.
However, and it’s a BIG however, should the upper low diving southeast through the Great Lakes phase well with the coastal storm, it could really blow out and produce a moderate to major snowstorm in our region, with 6-12″ accumulations region-wide, and some 12″+ amounts in the high terrain, so PLEASE stay tuned for updates, starting tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening, and again Saturday morning.
There is an outlier chance that this storm tracks very flat (as in west to east) and doesn’t give us much more than light rain and light snow, but that’s not very likely at the moment.
TIMING
So, light to moderate rain showers arrive by noon or early afternoon tomorrow and last through the night, mixing with snow in the high terrain late.
Rain continues in the valley locations Saturday morning while changing to snow at elevation, but then we all change to snow or mixed rain/snow in the valley, and snow everywhere else, especially north of the MassPike in WMass, CMass, SVT, and SWNH.
We all flip to snow Saturday night before the storm winds down around or after midnight.
WIND
As the storm gets east of us, strong northwest winds will gust Saturday night, allowing cold air to sweep the region with gusts up to 40mph possible.
TRAVEL
Saturday night does not look like a good night for travel, but stay tuned for updates.
Ok, that does it for now folks. Sunday is cold, blustery, snow showery in the hills, then fair weather arrives next week. Check back with me over the next 48-60 hours!
Thanks for reading, and if my reports are helpful to you in any way, please consider getting some of my comfy cold weather clothing items at my online Bonfire store, sale ends Sunday (link below)
———————
Stay Comfy and Warm This Winter, or Give
That Holiday Gift to Friends and Family This Year
DHTWN Apparel Sale Ends Sunday 12/6 (SHOP LINK): https://www.bonfire.com/dhtwn-2020-holidays/