Good morning everybody, thanks very much for all of the reports, photos, and videos yesterday. The large hail and cloud rotation and updrafting in the Easthampton area was the hairiest part of the day to be sure, but there were plenty of lightning strikes, downpours and other action region-wide that made it a notable strong/severe weather day.
The drought denting continues for the next three days as we enter into an onshore, more easterly/northeasterly flow thanks to a stalling surface low pressure system just off the coast, which will sit’n’spin, driving moisture from east to west across central and western MA today and adjacent counties in VT, NH and CT.
This will combine with an upper low/trough that will be overhead with much cooler temps aloft. These steeper lapse rates (the temperature gradient of warm air at surface, colder air aloft thereby fostering buoyancy) will take the incoming moisture, cause it to rise, and condense it out into scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms today, especially in the afternoon, although showers are already forming over parts of the region.
Any thunderstorms are likely to stay non-severe and just be heavy rainers for the most part, without much hail or wind, as the wind fields aren’t overly strong today (better chance for strong storms tomorrow).
It will also be cooler, with highs only in the 70s for the next three days, with lows either side of 60 degrees. Dewpoints will be in the 60s, so muggy conditions will continue.
After scattered showers overnight, Tuesday holds promise of some stronger storm potential, but generally the next three days feature scattered showers and storms, dry at times.
Remember: these are SMALL little systems that form. No one can know exactly if they’re neighborhood will get one or not. There will be haves and have nots. It will be mostly cloudy through the period, and winds should be light.
By Thursday, the upper level, ambling trough will be kicked east and out to sea by a shifting jet stream over Canada. So while a few isolated showers are possible Thursday, we should see the sun return and temps will respond, with highs in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Friday through Sunday could feature a spot hilltown/mountain shower, but should be mostly sunny, light winds, and warm temps with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Still not seeing any big heat waves. My kind of Summah. Pack an umbrella if you are heading out today!