WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHERN VT EXCEPT EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY… WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE SAME AREAS OF S.VT, AS WELL AS BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NW.CT… LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS OF HAMPSHIRE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WMASS…
(4:45pm Fri)

Good evening everybody, I just wanted to post an update for you because I know how much you enjoy hearing about wintry weather for parts of the region… NOT!! (Well, for a select few it IS exciting)

LOCALIZED HIGH TERRAIN TRAVEL ISSUES
Anyway, we have an interesting setup for a messy, wintry scene tomorrow morning as far south as the northern Litchfield Hills in NW.CT, but most likely for the eastern part of Berkshire County north of the MassPike, into the western hilltowns of Hampshire and Franklin Counties, and on north into southern VT west of Brattleboro in the higher terrain areas above 1500 feet in elevations, as well as the Monadnock region of Cheshire County, NH.

SYNOPSIS
–We’re going to see precipitation move in before sunrise tomorrow south of the Pike and up into SVT by about 8am-9am.
–Initially it should be a bit dry at the surface, so we’ll experience a brief period of virga (i.e. precip that evaporates before reaching the surface)
–However, the column (i.e the atmosphere from surface to sky above our heads) should moisten quickly and allow snow, sleet and rain to reach the ground
–This precip should become moderate to heavy by mid morning or so (certainly by late morning), and with temps above our heads near or below freezing, should foster snow and sleet in the aforementioned areas
–Valley areas all the way up through and into Brattleboro/Putney, VT could see snow and sleet mixed in with rain or a brief period of wintry precip before changing to rain
–I believe we could see a coating to an inch or two of snow and sleet in the aforementioned high-terrain areas, and any towns above 1500-2000 feet could see 1-3″ of snow/sleet with some 4″ amounts possible in the highest peaks (Greylock, Snow, Stratton, Bromley, Monadnock, etc.)

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LOW LEVEL JET STREAK = WEATHER ENHANCER
–As you can see in the attached map, we will have a strong easterly low level jet streak (i.e. faster river of air aloft about a mile up)
–This will A) cause air to be whisked away aloft, which encourages rising air, and hence efficient rainfall production (i.e. moderate to heavy rain)
–It will also B) encourage warmer marine air to move in off the ocean and warm the air above us, turning lower elevations to rain
–It will also C) help to produce heavier precipitation along the east-facing hilltown and mountain slopes in our region
–It will also D) help to produce higher wind gusts of 35-55mph across our high terrain
–It could also E) help to trap colder air in the most elevated valleys of western Franklin County as well as southern VT and produce freezing rain after the snow and sleet changes over, which could last into the early to mid afternoon
–These are all legitimate concerns for travel tomorrow in the high elevations of our region, as mentioned above in my “Localized High Terrain Travel Issues” section at the top of this post
–In addition, some coatings are possible in northern Worcester County
–Valley winds will gust 20-40mph out of the east, so no Wind Advisories are posted here

SLIPPERY ROADS
–Many southern VT trees have lost their leaves already
–While there could be localized power outages up that way, my concern is those fringe areas of northeastern Berkshire and western Franklin counties (and perhaps towns like Plainfield and West Cummington)
–These areas have more leaves on their trees, and if they catch some heavy wet snow and are then buffeted by strong wind gusts, you could get some localized tree damage and sporadic power outages in those areas
–Again, roads will be slippery tomorrow as leaves cover wet road ways, so travel with awareness

TOMORROW EVENING
–A dry slot looks like it will punch through aloft by late afternoon or early evening, which should turn any steady precip to areas of drizzle
–It’s a cold, raw day tomorrow, so hopefully it can be enjoyed by nesting indoors, but if you must travel, hopefully this info will help you prepare adequately for what to expect.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY
I will update you about Sunday and Monday tomorrow (though it generally looks unsettled and cool), but I just wanted to be sure to set you up for tomorrow.

Tonight is great for being out and about, so enjoy your Friday night whatever you do!
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SNOW, SLEET, RAIN AND WIND ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND… A COLD AND RAW SATURDAY IS ON OUR DOORSTEP… NICE TODAY, THOUGH… SUNDAY LOOKS SHOWERY… CONCERN FOR EXTENDED SNOW/ICE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TOWNS IN WMASS, SVT, AND SWNH ABOVE 1500 FEET TOMORROW FOR FIRST HALF OF THE DAY…
(6:50am Fri)

Good morning everybody, there’s lots to talk about, so I’m just going to section things out below and jump into The Bulletization Mobile(TM), and list everything out. Here we go!

SETUP
–We start off COLD this morning, with temps currently in the low to upper 20s across the region
–High temps will reach the mid to upper 40s today under partly sunny skies
–Clouds will be building in late in the today, and especially tonight as temps drop into the low 30s with moisture streaming in from the south

STORM TRACK
–Our coastal low pressure system will be drawn up the coast, thanks to departing high pressure to east-northeast
–This very strong high pressure ridge will sit over Newfoundland, Canada by tomorrow afternoon
–This will keep the low tucked into the coast more and encourage it to track right over Block Island, RI and northeast into the Gulf of Maine tomorrow night

SNOW AND SLEET
–Interestingly, temperatures a mile up will be below zero over the Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern VT and parts of southwest NH by Saturday morning
–As precipitation streams in from south to north, and quickly becomes moderate to heavy at times, we will see snow break out over the Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern VT, and parts of Cheshire County
–Sleet cannot be ruled out either, and everywhere early tomorrow morning could see some snowflakes or sleet pellets mixed in with the rain, even in the valley
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–While the valley should go to all rain fairly quickly, snow and sleet may hang on in elevations above 1500 feet
–Accumulations of a coating to up to 3″ are possible, with the highest amounts expected in the highest peaks of West County, northeast Berkshires, and especially the southern Greens of eastern Bennington and western Windham counties

RAINFALL
–It’s important to note that a strong easterly low level jet streak will form a mile up for tomorrow
–This has implications for heavier precip totals along the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires, Greens, Taconics, and Worcester hills for 1.5-3″+ of rainfall
–Some localized street flooding is possible
–The rest of us should generally see 1-2″ of rain
–Highs tomorrow will only be in the upper 30s for the high terrain to mid 40s in the valley
–Rain should taper to showers and/or drizzle tomorrow evening

WIND
–Winds out of the east-northeast should gust to 30mph at times in the valley, but possibly 40-50mph in the high terrain
–This could produce some isolated power outages
–This will also blow down a lot of leaves, which will cause slick road ways.
–I know someone who became paralyzed when their car skidded on wet-leaved roads so don’t take it lightly

SUNDAY
–More rain and snow showers will be possible during this day with highs in the 40s, which could last into Monday

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
–Sunshine will be developing and milder temps as this whole low pressure complex and eastern U.S. trough lifts out of the region

I will post a shorter update tonight. Until then, have a great day, and if you need a calendar or gifts for others, my 2019 calendar is or business clients.

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