Good evening everybody, the main headline is that we have two solid cold shots over the next week coming into the WMass region (which I define as a 50 mile radius out from Northampton center in every direction).
Some of us also have two chances to see the first snowflakes of the season, that being Thursday night and again sometime by the middle of next week.
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SUMMARY
–Tonight, we clear out with time and watch lows drop to the low to mid 30s with a light west wind
–Brief high pressure moves east through the region tomorrow, with mostly sunny skies
–Highs should reach the mid 40s to low 50s from high terrain to low terrain areas, and west winds could gust to 20mph at times
–Wednesday night looks clear and cold, with lows in the mid to upper 20s
–For Thursday, our upper low drops south into the Great Lakes, acting as a fulcrum to draw milder air northeast into the WMass region
–After early sunshine, clouds will increase as surface low pressure rides northeast along the incoming cold frontal boundary
–Highs will be in the low 40s over SVT and the Berkshires, but into the 45-50 degree range in the rest of WMass and northern CT
–Rain showers will arrive by early Thursday afternoon in our western areas and progress east with time
–By or after sunset, areas in southern VT and the northern Berkshires could see rain mix with and/or change to wet snow in the highest elevations, as colder air works in aloft
–This process will continue until midnight, when most of the precip scoots out of here with our weak surface low tracking through the region
–It still looks like 1-4″ could fall west of Brattleboro above 1000 feet, and east of Bennington above 1000 feet
–A coating to an inch or two is possible in the northern Berkshires and northwestern hilltowns of WMass, with some coatings in the Litchfield Hills and southern Berkshires
–Lows will be in the 20s Thursday night
–On Friday, it all clears east, and very cold air for early November arrives on blustery northwesterly winds gusting 25-40mph
–Highs on Friday will only be in the low to mid 30s with wind chills down into the teens, and lows in the actual mid to upper teens Friday night!
–Mostly sunny, calmer conditions on Saturday, but still cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s
–Southwest flow develops Sunday as high pressure tracks east of New England
–Southwest winds may gust over 20mph, and highs will be in the low to mid 40s with a few rain showers over the Berkshires, otherwise partly sunny with lows near freezing
–Early next week: the timing of another even colder shot of Canadian air along with a possible coastal low is undetermined at this time
–Suffice it to say, it will be getting quite cold again by the middle of next week, and we’ll have to watch for any coastal storm development
–The difference this time is that cold air may be in place BEFORE storminess arrives
–The other difference is that this may affect central and eastern MA vs. WMass, so I will keep you updated
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[THE NEEDLE MAY NOT BE THREADED] THE COLD IS COMING, BUT THE SNOW THREAT IS WANING, THOUGH NOT ZERO… THE POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH MAY INDUCE OUR SURFACE STORM TO COME TOO FAR NORTH, WHICH MEANS MORE RAIN AND LESS SNOW… SVT, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, AND WEST COUNTY STILL THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS OF MOST OF US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING… (7:05am Tues)
Good morning everybody, as I continue to learn, I continue to share those lessons with you here on the page. Read the quick discussion below, or scroll down for the bulleted salient points about our weather over the next several days.
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LESSONS/DISCUSSION
The lesson this morning is that unless that 1. cold air is already established in our region, and 2. a storm has already formed and is tracking into said region, and 3. it’s deeper into the cold season, be more wary of guidance 72 hours out that depict a solid snow opportunity playing out. In other words, when storms still have to form, and cold still has to arrive, everything has to time perfectly to get a snowstorm, especially early in November.
All this to say, that while we can’t rule out the snow potential I wrote about yesterday morning and evening, a trend is developing for the upper low to be more west of the region which would cause our weaker surface low to track more northerly across the region, rather than south of it.
This would keep the cold air further north until the storm passed our longitude, keeping us as mostly rain or rain mixed with snow late at night, except for the high terrain of the WMass and southern VT regions (the southern Green Mountains, northern/highest Berkshires, and western Franklin County towns like Heath, Rowe, etc.).
SUMMARY
–Aside from a few sunny breaks today, we should be mostly cloudy with highs in the low 50s high terrain, and mid to upper 50s in valley locations
–A few showers are possible, but we’ll be mostly dry. Best chance for showers is northeast CT into CMass during the day
–Then a cold front passes through this evening and overnight, and a few more rain showers will be possible then
–Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 30s, and a few snow showers are possible across SVT and the northern Berkshires/Taconics
–For Wednesday, it’s a fair day. Mostly sunny, highs in the 40s, west wind gusting to 20mph or so at times
–Wednesday night will be cold with lows in the mid to upper 20s, but it will be dry under partly cloudy skies
–Thursday starts off partly sunny, but then clouds will rule our skies as the day wears on
–Our surface low will track east-northeast toward the region
–Highs will get up into the 40s
–Then we have to watch the complex interplay of the upper level system, the surface low, and the cold front and leading edge of much colder air to see how far southeast it pushes into the region, or if it’s shunted northwest by a more-northerly-tracking low
–As of now, it’s best to be conservative with snow potential, and say that SVT, the northern Berkshires and western Franklin County could see between 1-4″, highest amounts in the highest peaks, with a coating to an inch or so possible overnight in the pre-dawn hours of Friday in the rest of the WMass region, with some places seeing mainly rain and no snow turnover, like northern CT
–I will refine things tonight, but the snow threat has been tamps, much to the chagrin of snow lovers, and much rejoicing was had by the snow haters
One thing is for sure: it’s going to get COLD behind the Friday morning system, and blustery on Friday with highs only in the 20s and 30s, and lows in the teens!!
Saturday is cold too, mostly sunny, but highs in the 30s, with highs in the 40s Sunday before another cold front comes through with some snow showers possible into early next week.
Have a great day!
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