[VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS TONIGHT… RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON… RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT, ENDING TUESDAY MORNING… COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY BEING BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE…7:25AM MONDAY]

Good morning everybody, those elevated thunderstorms were something else yesterday evening and night. We had warm air move in aloft, with colder air above that, so they formed above the cool/cold surface layer at the ground. Between that cold air and the fact that we have no foliage yet, the thunder was louder than normal. Thanks again for all the reports!

Speaking of thunder, we can’t rule it out again this early to mid afternoon, given that we may see a few sunny breaks that can could warm the surface while much colder air rides in over our heads. This could create lapse rates strong enough to produce convection, so something to watch.

Let’s jump to a Summary and list out what we can expect today:

SUMMARY
–Expect mostly cloudy skies today, with a few sunny breaks over the WMass region
–Upper level low pressure will drift east eastward today, and float a very cold pool of sub-zero air over our heads 2-3 miles up in the sky
–With highs in the low to mid 40s (maybe even briefly reaching 50 degrees if enough of a sunny break can develop towards mid-day), that would create strong thermal lapse rates, the gradient between surface temps and sky temps
–With upper level energy moving east into the region (central NY is already experiencing numerous showers developing at 7am), it’s possible we could see some isolated thunderstorm develop by late morning into the mid afternoon, along with other showers that are slated to wet the ground today
–As the day wears on, that colder air will slowly be descending in elevation
–This means that the high terrain above 1500-2000 feet should start to see wet snow flakes mix in with the rain in northwest MA, the Taconics, and southern VT/southwest NH
–By evening, we should see more of this transition from rain showers to snow showers, or even periods of light snow. Lows will dip to near freezing.
–We could see a coating to an inch or so (maybe 2″?) mainly along and north of Rt. 2 corridor in WMass, CMass, SVT, SWNH and the Taconics, but coatings are possible south of there, too
–For Tuesday, that upper low drifts east, but it never totally loses its influence over us until this coming weekend
–Tuesday looks like a mostly cloudy day with some sunny periods. After a morning rain or snow shower, highs will reach the low to mid 40s
–Lows Tuesday night will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s with a spot rain or snow shower possible
–Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with partly to mostly sunny skies as weak high pressure noses into the region. Highs should reach the 45-50º range, with lows in the low to mid 30s
–Thursday and Friday look more cloudy than anything with that stubborn upper low off the New England coast retrograding (i.e. tracking westward towards us), and maybe bringing a few showers to CMass, southwest NH and northeast CT
–Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s with lows in the mid to upper 30s
–The weekend looks a little better with partly sunny skies on average and temps in the low to mid 50s, hopefully

Ok, that sums it up for today, I will check in later about any storms and/or transition to snow.

Take care of yourselves, we’re in a long fight to preserve our health. Stay tuned, stay hydrated, and stay healthy…