SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO A LULL IN THE ACTION… THE AMOUNT OF SUNNY BREAKS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM THIS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE… BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE INTO NORTHERN CT… MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON… NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY FOR NOW… (7:50am Sat 6/29/19)
Good morning everybody, humidity is increasing this morning, and we’ve had some overnight showers move through, including a severe-warned thunderstorm in eastern Worcester County that is now out to sea.
Did anyone here any thunder last night? There was at least a couple of lightning strikes regionally registered.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s with dew point temps in the mid 60s to low 70s in spots.
A warm front extending west to east is bisecting WMass from north to south this morning. In fact, as I’m typing this I literally could feel the humidity increase noticeably so I guess it’s lifting north still.
A little ripple of low pressure over the central Berkshires will continue to ride this boundary east, and its trailing cold front will then be dragged west-northwest to east-southeast through the region this afternoon.
Generally, if we can get some decent sunny breaks and increased surface heating along and south of the Rt. 9 corridor from late morning into early/mid afternoon, we increase our chances of a more destabilized surface to combine with plentiful moisture, decent wind shear aloft, and the incoming forced lift of air ahead of the passing cold front.
I think that by early/mid afternoon a scattered to a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop across SVT/northern MA and track southeast, strengthening as they do.
Again, the best chance for these to become strong to severe with wind gusts over 40 or 50mph along with hail and torrential rain, will be along the MassPike corridor and south into CT, especially into southwest MA and northwest CT the way it looks now.
Any showers/storms wane with the setting sun tonight, and lows will camp out in the low 60s.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW
We do it all again tomorrow, though instead of steep low lapse rates like today, we’ll have steep mid level lapse rates (meaning the temperature gradient will be located higher up in the atmosphere).
An upper level low pressure system will slam south into New England and rapidly cool temperatures aloft.
For example, surface temps will be in the low 70s.
A mile up they will be in the upper 40s to low 50s
Two miles up they will be in the low 30s
Three and a half miles up they will in the single digits!
If all those elevations were only seperated by 10 degrees each, we’d have a more stable atmosphere, which would inhibit rising air, but tomorrow this vertical temperature profile should produce showers, downpours and thunderstorms, some of which may produce hail since the freezing level will be lower than normal. With these steeper lapse rates, damaging wind gusts are also possible.
Again, with the setting sun, activity should wane.
The upcoming holiday week looks mixed with fair weather Monday, showers Monday night, increasing sunshine Tuesday, fair weather Wednesday, and a few thunderstorms possible on the 4th of July.
I will keep you updated today and tomorrow on any developing severe weather, so if you don’t see me in your feed, and think “I wonder what’s going on with any storms today?” visit this page throughout the day and I will update here, as well as tomorrow, and I will keep you updated on the 4th of July forecast as well.
Have a great day!