A FINAL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS, DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6:30PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING… A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY SEVERE WEATHER (AS I MENTIONED IN MY MORNING POST) SHOULD NOT MATERIALIZE… (6:30pm Sunday)
Good evening everybody, we have a final round of three groupings of showers and storms moving through the region.
Lapse rates are not overly impressive and in fact are meager with grouping #3 in the attached radar still.
Grouping #1 is a few showers already in the WMass area.
It is grouping #2 pushing into the northern Berkshires and SVT that has the best chance of producing some isolated gusty winds.
In fact, grouping #1 could do the same in Hampshire and Franklin counties, possibly into CMass.
I will continue to monitor, but am not thinking any real severe storms will form. The NWS tends to be on the liberal side of warning storms as severe, which is the side to err toward. I am not judging them, they do tremendous work.
The storms that were warned today, however, weren’t really severe, because I don’t think they produced wind gusts of 58mph or 1′ hail (or both), but perhaps I missed a report. Let me know if I did.
After showers/storms move to our east by about 9pm or 10pm, we will be come mostly clear overnight, dry out, and lows will drop into the mid 40s.
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK (copied from the morning report from earlier today)
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Monday: Breezy with west winds gusting to 30mph at times as fresh, dry air moves into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies with a slight chance of a shower. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, dry and mostly clear
Tuesday: High pressure continues with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s as wind slackens, lows in the upper 40s with clouds increasing
Wednesday: Another warm front/cold front combo moves through for this day, night and into early Thursday morning with more showers and highs in the 70s, with lows in the 50s
Thursday: Any morning showers clear out, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and mostly sunny skies developing
Thursday afternoon through Sunday: (knock on wood, really really hard, but don’t hurt yourself!) we could possibly get a 4-day dry stretch in here, which we haven’t seen in ages. It probably won’t happen, but the potential is there. Here’s hoping!
Have a great night and please post your reports below if the weather gets hairy for you…
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SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TACONICS, SVT, THE BERKSHIRES AND POINTS EAST BETWEEN 2-5PM… WHETHER WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUN IN HERE AFTER THEY PASS WILL HELP DICTATE IF WE CAN GET STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN A SECOND SQUALL LINE, OR BROKEN LINES… (1:20pm Sunday)
Good afternoon everybody, as you can see on the attached radar, a line of showers and one thunderstorm that is trying to develop is set to track east-northeast through our region this early and mid afternoon.
The storm would pass through the central/northern Taconics, central/northern Berkshires, northwestern Hampshire County, and western Franklin County, if it holds its strength.
The heaviest showers in this line will pass north of the Pike in WMass, SVT, and then SW.NH and CMass, with a few showers possible along and south of the Pike down into northern CT.
On the attached satellite map you can see that any sunshine we have in our region is going away soon. Over western NY I drew in the cold front, and in between the front and our advancing line of clouds and showers, is an area of some sunny breaks.
If that can open up a bit and create more surface heating behind this first line, we could get some strong storms in here between 5-8pm.
However, where the rain falls will cool the surface, so we’d have to see a lot of sun develop, later in the day when the sun angle is lower, so I don’t think we have a low chance of strong to severe storms.
Regardless, I will update you later this afternoon after this line moves through…
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SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS SHOULD YOU SEE A STRONG STORM… PATCHY DENSE FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF THIS MORNING.. SHOWERS/STORSM MOVE THROUGH 3-7PM, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS 2PM… COOL TOMORROW, AND ASIDE FROM SHOWERS THIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE’RE LOOKING MUCH DRIER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND… (8:10am Sunday)
Good morning everybody, we’re starting the day off in the 50s to low 60s with mostly cloudy skies, and some patchy dense fog has developed across southern New England, especially so in the Berkshires and CMass.
Are you seeing dense fog this morning?
We should see some breaks of sun slowly develop this morning, and we will see highs in the low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DISCUSSION
How much sun we will see is going to be one of the keys to help determine how much surface heating and resultant surface instability we can develop ahead of the approaching line of showers and thunderstorms already forming out over central NY, west of Binghamton, NY.
Low level lapse rates (the gradient of warm surface to colder sky) don’t look super impressive, but mid level lapse rates do look fairly strong, as does expected wind shear over the region (the difference in wind speed and/or direction, with height). Both are factors that help develop severe storms.
Other factors such as moisture and forcing (i.e. a mechanism that forces air to begin to rise, such as a cold front) will be in place.
For example, dewpoint temps, as you can see in the attached graphic, will be rising into the low to mid 60s, so there will be enough moisture present, and we’ll get lift from the incoming cold front, being sent eastward as it rounds the bend of our anomalous upper level system diving through southeast Canada between today and Tuesday.
Having said all of this, we will definitely see a line, or several broken lines/clusters of showers and thunderstorms develop and move through the region between 3-7pm (see attached simuliated radar graphic for 4pm today). Some showers are possible in our northwestern zones (SVT, northern Berkshires, central/northern Taconics( by 2pm, but 3-7pm looks like the main prime time for showers and storms.
The primary threats would be possible isolated damaging straight line wind gusts, and hail. We can’t rule out an isolated tornado, with winds coming out of the south, and winds aloft being out of the southwest.
UPDATE 8:25am: Personally, the more I look at this, I think the severe threat is low today, but not non-existent. I’m not sure we’ll be able to develop enough insolation (i.e. surface heating) to get the low level lapse rates powerful enough to develop big storms, but I will keep you updated.
Any showers/storms should quit by 8pm or so, and pronounced drying will come in. the attached dewpoint map shows dewpoint temps in the 20s and 30s by sunrise tomorrow! Super dry!
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
Monday: Breezy with west winds gusting to 30mph at times as fresh, dry air moves into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies with a slight chance of a shower. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, dry and mostly clear
Tuesday: High pressure continues with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s as wind slackens, lows in the upper 40s with clouds increasing
Wednesday: Another warm front/cold front combo moves through for this day, night and into early Thursday morning with more showers and highs in the 70s, with lows in the 50s
Thursday: Any morning showers clear out, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and mostly sunny skies developing
Thursday afternoon through Sunday: (knock on wood, really really hard, but don’t hurt yourself!) we could possibly get a 4-day dry stretch in here, which we haven’t seen in ages. It probably won’t happen, but the potential is there. Here’s hoping!
Have a great day, and look for my early afternoon update by about 1pm, I will keep you updated on strong/severe weather potential today…..