SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME MAY AGAIN BE SEVERE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THAT MAIN THREAT… CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY… MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A SPOT SHOWER CAN’T BE RULED OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SATURDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING… MAKE NO MISTAKE, IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, COOLER BUT STILL WARM, AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER… AND TO THAT, I SAY GIDDY UP…. (6:45AM WED)
Good morning folks, our planet has turned on its axis once again as our star and its heliosphere of which we are an infinitely tiny part hurtles through the galaxy, which in turns hurtles through the Universe. It’s quite the cosmic dance when you sit back and ponder the yonder.
We’re starting off with patchy fog out in the Berkshires and along parts of the Rt. 2 corridor. I’m sure some other fog patches do exist, but these will again burn off with time as the sun angle is still high in the sky, yes indeed it is.
Today is a transition day, meaning we have a cold front that will be tracking southeast into the region tonight. A few isolated showers are possible this morning into the early afternoon, and clouds will be on the increase so don’t expect a lot of sunshine today.
We will have dewpoints reaching into the low 70s for one last day of high humidity, and high temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for the high terrain, and the mid 80s or so in the valley areas.
Given copious moisture, a source of strong lift moving into the region from the cold front, a small amount of wind shear, and steep low lapse rates, we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop between 2-4pm, and continue through the region tonight before midnight.
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Some some storms are expected to become strong to severe with localized damaging wind gusts again possible. Hopefully we don’t see the kind of damage we had in Deerfield, Montague and Erving yesterday from that isolated severe cell, but it’s possible.
After evening and night time showers quit, we will drop our lows into the low 60s and be watching incoming drier air to end our work week.
The attached dew point maps show this transition well, as we have low 70s dewpoint temps today, and low 50s dewpoint temps by Friday morning. Yes!
For Thursday and Friday, we will have mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows near 60 degrees.
A spot shower can’t be ruled out for Thursday, but Friday looks totally dry.
The weekend does look like a weak warm front moves through Saturday, and a cold front moves through Sunday. So while the weekend looks mostly sunny and seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 80s and low humidity, an isolated shower or t-storm can’t be ruled out either day.
The attached upper level map shows that a ridge will be dominating in the Four Corners region of the southwest U.S. and as such will cause a westerly to northwesterly flow to dominate across our region into next week.
This will result in drier air moving back in to start next week with mostly sunny skies and seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.
I will update again this afternoon as storm development gets underway.
Have a great day!
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