[ALERT: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED FOR ALL OF WMASS, NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CT, AND SOUTHERN VT… A SUPERCELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS FORMED AT THE PA/NJ/NY STATE JUNCTION AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST CT AND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND HARTFORD, ARRIVING IN NW CT BETWEEN 5-6PM, AND I-91 CORRIDOR FROM SPRINGFIELD SOUTH BETWEEN 5:30-7PM… THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SO CHECK BACK ON THIS PAGE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR AN UPDATE… 3:15PM WED]

Good afternoon everybody, we have some ingredients setting us up for the potential to see one to several strong to severe thunderstorms (along with showers and downpours) give strong wind shear over the area, increasing instability especially south of the Pike due to increasing dewpoint temperatures, surface heating, and plenty of moisture.

Yes, we don’t really have much of a trigger to cause widespread thunderstorms, which is possible tomorrow, but these type of pre-cold-frontal, post-warm-frontal environments can generate isolated supercells, like the one you see developing in the black circle on the attached water vapor still image attached to this post.

That storm has a history of wind gusts over 60mph, and large ping pong sized hail. Does it maintain that severity all the way to northern CT and southern portions of WMass?

Possibly, but I will update you as it gets closer, but at least wanted to poke my head, let you know that the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted for a good portion of the WMass region including the Pioneer Valley from VT to CT, and that we already have one severe storm tracking toward the Springfield/Hartford region.

I will update you as necessary, stay tuned, and keep an eye/ear to the southwest from whence our weather is tracking today.

Hayes, out (for now)…
———-
[SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, PRECEDED BY SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN SPOTS… HUMIDITY INCREASES TONIGHT, THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY… MORE STRONG STORMS AND DOWNPOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH… AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FRIDAY, OTHERWISE A NICE FAIR WEATHER STRETCH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COMING UP AS HUMIDITY COMES DOWN INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE REBUILDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A FEW FOLKS COULD REACH THE LOW 90S… 7:10AM WED]

Good morning everybody, we have a warm front pushing northeast towards the region today, and because of that, we’ve had some morning showers break out across the region and some have been heavy at times. We can’t rule out an embedded thunderstorm, either.

Temps are in the 60s to near 70 degrees, and dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s, with a calm to light wind. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s today.

After this morning wave rolls through, we’ll have to see how quickly the warm front tracks into and through the region, as well as how much of our overcast/mostly cloudy sky cover can break up and allow sunshine through to heat the surface, increase instability, and aid the development of strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and into the evening.

The best chance for severe weather is in the northwestern half of CT (Litchfield and Hartford Counties), as well as the southern Taconics/Berkshires and Hampden County.

The threats from these storms would be damaging straight line winds, torrential rain and street flooding, and small hail. We also can’t rule out a weak tornado, but it’s highly unlikely that we’ll see one (though not a non-zero chance).

Humidity will increase tonight as well, as the warm front represents the leading edge of a muggier air mass advecting into the region.

As humidity builds into the region, scattered showers and thunderstorms may last into the night, as lows will settle down into the upper 60s to low 70s. Patchy fog may form late and into early Thursday morning.

For Thursday, a cold front draped southward off of a system passing well north of us will be slicing into the region with time. This will produce another mostly cloudy day, and highs will be in the 80s and it will be very humid with dewpoints in the low 70s.

While today’s thunderstorm threat is greatest in the late afternoon and through the evening, tomorrow’s will be more squarely in the afternoon to possibly early evening. Again, straight line damaging winds, hail and torrential rain will be possible.

After the front passes us by and showers quit sometime in the evening, lows will drop into the low to upper 60s and humidity will start to decrease by Friday morning.

Friday through Monday look like a gorgeous, mostly sunny stretch as high pressure builds into the region, with highs in the low to mid 80s Friday with an afternoon isolated shower or storm possible and lows in the 60s.

Then Saturday through Monday look warmer, with highs in the 85-90º range. Humidity will be fairly comfortable Friday and Saturday, but begin to increase for Sunday into early next week.

Next chance for substantial shower or storm activity will be by Tuesday into the middle of next week.

Have a great day!