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Good evening everybody, we’ve got fairly mild but dry conditions out there, and this dry air is going to help cool the surface atmosphere over the Berkshires, western hills, SVT and other aforementioned cooler, higher terrain areas.
This will happen because as precipitation falls into the dry air, the milder air temps and the colder dew point temps will seek to meet each other in the middle, cooling the surface air temps down to around the freezing mark.
There is virga occurring over northern CT, though a few light showers may be reaching the ground in spots.
The precipitation shield will be spotty and periodic. This means that a batch of valley rain and high-terrain mixed showers are expected before midnight, again before dawn, and tomorrow morning, but it doesn’t appear that it will be raining or precipitating the whole time through the morning.
Bottom line is some slippery spots may form in those high terrain areas with a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain possible, with valley showers expected. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s. The southern Greens have the best chance at icing that could impact travel.
For tomorrow, morning showers will end before noon, and highs will reach the low to mid 40s, mild!
By afternoon, the first cold front will clear the area to the east, and winds will start to gust 20-30mph in the afternoon as temps drop under partly sunny skies.
However, by later afternoon and into the evening our Arctic cold front will be crashing our party before midnight.
Ahead of this front, scattered snow squalls are expected to form as much colder air “leans forward” of the surface front, passing overhead before the surface front does, which will steepen the low level temperature gradient, and encourage fast-rising air/convection.
We could see one or two legit snow squalls with quick coatings to an inch, slippery travel, and low visibility with gusty winds before midnight.
The front swings through, and the northwest winds go UP.
Gusts of 35-50mph are expected late tomorrow night into Tuesday, and some power outages are possible.
Wind chills by Tuesday morning will be down in the 5-20º below zero range, with air temp lows in the upper singles to low teens.
Tuesday looks sunny, but very cold and very blustery, with highs in the low to mid 20s and lows in the teens.
Wednesday and Thursday look mild and sunny with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and Friday through the weekend look colder with highs in the 30s, with a coastal storm likely staying to our south, but I continue to monitor. If in the very low chance it gets closer, we’d have a March snowstorm on our hands.
Have a great night, and remember that It’s Your Support That Sustains This Resource Each Year (2021 Annual Membership/Support Drive continues):
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[RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT FOR WMASS POINTS EAST AND SOUTH… HOWEVER, SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WINDHAM AND EASTERN BENNINGTON COUNTIES IN SVT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING…SOUTH WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SQUALLS MONDAY NIGHT AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS… COLD TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT… THEN, THE MILDENING COMMENCES… 7:55AM SUNDAY]
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It’s Your Support That Sustains This Resource
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Good morning everybody, we have a mostly dry day ahead, with more clouds than sun. Best chance for sunny breaks will be this morning, then the cloud deck thickens and lowers.
We have a storm to our south, and a storm to our north, and we’ll be weak sandwich filling in the middle, the kind where the bread is way too thick, and the middle part is way too thin.
#DumbAnalogyForTheDay
Showers arrive late afternoon in northwest CT, but really it’s mostly an overnight event.
While it’s rain for Bennington, Brattleboro, Keene, and WMass, CMass and northern CT, the southern Greens should see slippery travel overnight as a mixed bag of snow, but mainly sleet and freezing rain/drizzle falls across those higher elevations.
Highs today will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, though parts of SVT may stay in the mid 30s.
Lows tonight will be in the low 30s up in southern VT, but hang in the mid 30s in the WMass region with showers and patchy fog.
For Monday, precipitation will end in the morning as the storms responsible track northeast. We will receive either side of a quarter inch of rainfall, with some light ice glazes up in central parts of southern VT.
A cold front moves through Monday morning, but highs will get up to the upper 30s to mid 40s before plummeting during the afternoon, which is just before the actual Arctic front passes through the region.
Ahead of that front, will be very low level lapse rates, meaning wicked cold air will be rushing in overhead, in front of the surface front. This will cause a rapid drop in temperatures half a mile to two miles above our heads, which will likely produce rapidly rising air with surface moisture to work with.
This should produce some Monday evening/night snow squalls, which will be scattered.
If anyone gets under one of these, they last 10-20 minutes typically, and can produce a coating to an inch of snow quickly, along with lowered visibilities with very gusty winds, and they can change road conditions rapidly.
The other issue is wind shift.
Earlier on Monday by late morning into early afternoon, southerly winds may gust to 30mph, but behind the Arctic front wind shifts to the west and blows up to and maybe over 40mph, which could produce isolated outages.
Combined with plummeting temperatures with lows in the upper singles to low teens, wind chills will be BELOW zero, and could be up to 20 below zero in southern VT! Might even see a short-fused Wind Chill Advisory in western Windham and Bennington Counties issued on Monday if this trend continues.
Tuesday is a cold late January day, with highs in the low to mid 20s, blustery, with west winds gusting to 30mph or so. At least it will be sunny. Lows will be in the teens.
Wednesday/Thursday are gorgeous, milder, highs in the low to mid 40s, lows in the upper 20s.
A cold front moves in late week and brings highs into the low to mid 30s.
If you’re a snow lover, it’s a pity because there will be a coastal storm around, and if track was closer, it could tap that and produce an early March snowstorm here, but as of now, that’s very unlikely.
That’s it from Lake Wobegon, folks. Thanks for reading, and I hope you’ll make a small monthly or annual contribution to help support my work to keep it going, I’d like to continue.
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It’s Your Support That Sustains This Resource
2021 Annual Membership/Support Drive:
https://westernmassweather.com/support-network/
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