[SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES INCLUDING THE TACONICS OF E.NY, LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NW CT, AND THE BERKSHIRES… A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT… FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM TODAY… OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WMASS REGION… TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS COULD TRACK RIGHT OVER WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING… LUCKILY IT’S FAST MOVER, AND SHOULDN’T CONTAIN MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF… COOLER AND DRIER LATER IN THE WEEK… 7:55AM SUNDAY]

Good morning everybody, there’s lots to talk about today, so I am going to leap, hurl myself, jump, tumble, run, somersault, and triple flip into a double-dashed frenzy of weather-summarizing activity and overall frothiness below. Send band-aids, Bacitracin, coffee, and home fries.

SUMMARY
–Humidity is already increasing across the region this morning, as a warm front approaches
–We have dew point temps into the low 70s across northeast PA (a/k/a “NEPA”) and southeast NY, and that is tracking our way
–A supercell thunderstorm that is tornado-warned and exhibiting strong, tight rotation in NEPA is tracking toward NW CT
–A decent southerly low-level jet will move into the region today, with southwest flow, which means the air will have helicity today, or turning motions, which is one prerequisite for tornado formation
–While it is a LOW chance, the highest potential within that low chance area for a tornado is in the southern/central Taconics, Litchfield County CT and the southern Berkshires this afternoon
–There are other factors mitigating severe weather development, but the potential is there, so this is a heads up
–Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today, with increasing humidity as our warm front moves through, and then watch for any prolonged sunny breaks that MAY form behind the front, which could push temps into the mid 80s
–The sunnier it can get, the more destabilized the atmosphere becomes, which you “need” if you’re watching for severe thunderstorms to form in an environment where there’s no strong lifting occurring (such that happens with a strong cold front, which we don’t have in place today)
–So in summary, the severe weather threat of a possible tornado, localized straight line wind damage, hail, FREQUENT lightning, and torrential rain will be mainly along and west of the I-91 corridor, and especially in the Berkshires south and west
–Otherwise, any of us could see a non-severe thunderstorm in the afternoon, along with scattered showers with some downpours possible anywhere across the WMass region
–The 3-9pm timeframe is the best chance for any severe weather
–Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible before midnight, then activity should wane, with lows either side of 70º and humid
–For Monday, the calm before the tropical storm
–Brief ridging will gives us a mostly sunny day with highs well into the 80s, and it will be humid out there as moisture continues to be drawn north between our Bermuda high and out Midwestern mid level trough
–As such, clouds will increase later in the day and at night, with showers moving into the region around/after midnight with lows in the 60s
–A very tropical air mass advects into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night and showers and downpours will become more widespread with time on Tuesday
–The rain will fall heavily at times, and some areas, especially over the Litchfields, Taconics, Berkshires, western hilltowns and southern Greens could see 3-6″ of rainfall in localized areas, prompting areas of flash flooding to occur
–The flooding threat is the primary issues with Tropical Storm Isaias, which could track right over western Massachusetts!
–However, if it follows such a track, that means it will have scraped over land for many hundreds of miles, and will be much weakened in terms of wind, so I don’t expect much wind out of this system at the moment
–The rain? Different story. Showers, downpours, and some embedded thunderstorms will run through the region Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before the storm ships northeast and into Canada by Wednesday afternoon
–Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday and upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday when showers will wane, and a few sunny breaks will be possible late
–The late week period into the weekend looks GORGEOUS with much drier conditions, lowered humidity and seasonable temps with highs either side of 80º

Have a great day, but keep it tuned here as the low chance for potentially volatile/severe weather exists today, especially west of I-91, and I will be monitoring all day and night long, and will update you here, so if you don’t see me in newsfeed, and you’re on a mobile phone, click the “HOME” link in the FB app, scroll down past the photos and videos that they make you scroll past, and you’ll find my latest updates. Thanks!