[ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY ON THE WAY… SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY… A RESPITE ON MONDAY, THEN ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE ISAIAS WHICH IS STILL PEGGED TO TRACK NEAR THE WMASS REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME BETWEEN THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY… HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY… BEST CHANCE OF WIND WOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST CT AND SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY GIVEN CURRENT TRACK THINKING… STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR UPDATES… 6:45AM SAT]
Good morning everybody, we’re waking up to a beautiful morning with temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lower humidity. A sweet, cool morning underway.
Meanwhile, down in the Bahamas, Hurricane Isaias has strengthened a bit with max. sustained winds at 85mph with higher gusts. This storm is tracking northwest at 12mph towards the east coast of FL, but it’s uncertain that it actually makes landfall there, and more likely than not stays just offshore and turns north toward the Carolinas, will the most likely first landfall will be made.
In western MA and surrounding counties, we will enjoy a beautiful Saturday with sunny skies and very warm temps in the mid to upper 80s for highs with a light west to northwest wind.
Clouds will increase tonight as a warm front begins to approach the region. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s.
For our Sunday, a disturbance will be tracking to our northwest and will float a warm front through the region. This will allow humidity to increase, along with cloud cover.
By afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, and highs should reach the low to mid 80s.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible tomorrow night as well, with lows only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s.
On Monday, we will remain in a humid air mass, as moisture builds into New England thanks to mid level troughing to our west, and high pressure ridging way to our south and east.
A few isolated showers or storms are possible Monday, but coverage should be spotty. Highs will reach well into the 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
By Tuesday, the tropical floodgates open, and very moist air advects into the region from south to north as either Hurricane or Tropical Storm Isaias begins to turn the corner through the Carolinas and move up the coast, somewhere near New England.
A “PRE”, or Predecessor Rain Event is possible, which could focus a strong plume of heavy rainfall north of Isaias into New England on Tuesday, especially by afternoon and evening.
If this sets up, some Flash Flooding will be possible, and I imagine Watches would be hoisted by the NWS by Monday or so. We shall see.
Then, Isaias wil be making its final approach north-northeastward or northeastward toward the region.
We are in the track cone (attached) which means the storm center could pass right over WMass, but it’s more likely that it will pass somewhere between Montauk Point in eastern Long Island east to Nantucket Island, or a little south/east of there.
Tuesday night into Wednesday early afternoon remains the most likely period for very heavy rain, and a punch of wind that could bring gusts over 50mph from northeast CT and southern Worcester County to points south and east in EMass, and especially the Cape and Islands.
This storm will be accelerating in its forward motion, so it should blast through and be out of here by Wednesday night.
There is a small chance it could slow down, but personally I think it will keep on truckin’. Let’s hope so.
Once we reach Thursday into next weekend, Isaias looks to pull in much drier, more seasonable air behind it and into New England with highs in the low 80s, lows near 60, and fair weather.
Please stay tuned for updates over the coming days about Hurricane Isaias and its potential impacts on the WMass region… have a great day!