AT 2PM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES NOW POSTED FOR WMASS, NORTHERN CT AND CMASS…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR ALL OF MASS AND CT… SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING NOW, WITH ONE IN EASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY AT 1:47PM, OTHERS IN EASTERN NY APPROACHING WESTERN MA AND WESTERN CT… VERY HUMID AIR MASS IS FOSTERING INSTABILITY, KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST… THE EASTERN HAMPSHIRE STORM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE STORM AS IT HEADS INTO WORCESTER COUNTY, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN… PELASE POST REPORTS BELOW… (1:55pm Wed)
Good afternoon everybody, showers, downpours and thunderstorms are forming in and just west of the WMass region. At 2pm a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was posted for northern Berkshires, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was posted for all of WMass, CMass and northern CT.
Some storms will be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and torrential rain. Small to medium sized hail is also possible, especially with the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires cell that is developing now as I type.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has a decent chance of being issued by NWS this afternoon for parts of the region.
Very strong low level lapse rates are contributing to showers and storms.
Isolated flash flooding is possible today, as heavy rain from downpours and storms will accumulate up to 1-2″ an hour in the worst-affected spots.
We’re all under it this afternoon, so please post your reports below, and I will update you with comments BELOW THIS POST and with new posts as well, so stay tuned, and stay safe…
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SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR SOME AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NNE… A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON THE WAY… THE T-STORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNS INTO A DOWNPOUR AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE INTO NORTHERN CT, AND INTO CMASS AS WELL… HEAT BUILDS ON FRIDAY, AND THEN (FOR SOME) OUTRIGHT DANGEROUS HEAT APPEARS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-110+ DEGREES… SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE HOT AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WHOOOOOOOSSSHHHH, IT ALL GOES AWAY AND WE GET MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S… AS KRAMER WOULD SAY, GIDDY UP (5:55AM WED, 7/17/19)
Good morning everybody, we’re starting off the morning with temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. It’s warm, humid, and we’ve got a cluster of showers moving through the northern Berkshires, northern Taconics, SVT, and then western Franklin County and maybe northern parts of Cheshire County NH later this morning.
The northern halves of Bennington and Windham County could see some more moderate to briefly heavy showers, but the rest of the activity should be on the lighter side south of Rt. 9 in SVT.
TODAY: STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS POSSIBLE
For today, we have to watch to see how many and for what duration any sunny breaks can form. Sunshine causes “insolation”, which just refers to the heating of the surface by solar rays. Because it increases the temperature gradient from surface to sky (a/k/a “lapse rates”) this surface heating may aid and abet the thunderstorm potential and make a few of them strong to severe, due to isolated damaging wind gust potential.
So, a few widely scattered lighter showers this morning generally north of the Rt. 9 corridor in WMass, with highs in the mid 80s, and possibly higher if some prolonged sunny periods can develop. Humidity will increase. Heat indices may push into the mid 90s today, although Heat Advisories are not expected at this time.
By the mid to later afternoon, a cold front will be dropping south into southern New England and will likely cross to the south of us later tonight. This front provide forced rising air (a/k/a “forcing”), and in combination with the copious moisture in place, some decent wind shear and strong low level lapse rates to produce areas of downpours and thunderstorms, a few of which should become strong to severe.
The main threat is localized and isolated damaging wind gusts. This means most of us won’t see such weather. But for a comparatively small people, the potential is there. Hail is not as much of a concern, but I’ll update you later today.
TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW DOWNPOURS
Any thunderstorms should weaken into showers and/or downpours by or after midnight that will continue at times during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. Lows will only sit in the upper 60s with saturated air – not happy sleepers will we be!
TOMORROW: SHOWERY WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS, WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE PIKE
As the remnants of Barry and its spread-out tropical moisture works through on Thursday, a cold front will be to our south, and so the heaviest rain should focus over CT, RI and SE MA, possibly impacting CMass as well.
For folks north of the Pike in MA, VT and NH, scattered showers with a downpour or two looks likely for Thursday. It will be cool, with highs only in the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies and a moist, easterly flow. Humidity will continue.
Lows on Thursday night will be in the low 60s as any showers come to an end.
HEAT WAVE: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS HEAT FOR SOME ON SATURDAY
Friday may start off mostly cloudy and with patchy fog, but we should see developing sunshine and high pressure building over our region with vigor through Sunday, peaking on Saturday.
Highs should reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with some mid 80s in the high terrain of the Berkshires and southern VT.
Lows will hover in the low to mid 70s with very muggy conditions, but dry.
Saturday looks awful. It will be mostly sunny, but highs in the upper 90s, dew points in the low to mid 70s, and heat indices well over 100 degrees, and in some cases, possibly over 110 degrees! Lows will be in the low to mid 70s and continued very muggh.
MIX IN HYDRATION AND COOLING
Folks who are elderly, infirm, have respiratory issues, or normally heat sensitive or who work outside MUST take precautions to access periods of cooling and hydration, mixed in with your day. it is essential to stave off any potential of developing heat illnesses. No one has any time for that.
I will work on gathering some information on cooling centers, spray parks and the like and posting it on the page. If anybody knows for sure about such facilities, please post below.
Sunday and Monday will hot, but not as bad as Saturday. Highs likely in the low 90s both days, with maybe a few mid 90s readings.
By Monday, showers and thunderstorms will be expected with a strong cold front pressing south through the region.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPS BY TUES
By Tuesday, the humidity and heat will be swept seaward with gusto, and we will be in summer heaven with highs in the low 80s, lows in the upper 50s, sunshine, and dry air.
Altogether now…. AAAAHHHHHHHHH.
But before that, we’ve got some potent summer weather to endure, so stick to the page through the weekend for multiple updates of our incoming severe weather potential, but in terms of thunderstorms, torrential rain, and impactful high heat.
Have a great day!