Good evening everybody, I hope you had a great day, even though we surely did not get that partial sunshine I was expecting. Still, a day like today beats any of those Hoth-esque brutally Arctic-ish days in the not recent past that we had to endure! The main push for this post is to let you know that a lot in terms of winter weather impacts and results is going to come down to how fast the secondary low forms to our south, and how strong it gets early on in its formative stages.

The faster it forms and stronger it gets early on will help hold cold further south into the northern third or half of MA as well as in SVT and SWNH, which leads to longer periods of snow and sleet vs. rain.

It would also help keep temps from rising too far above the mid 30s, which can support snow or sleet (or a mix of those) if the intensity is strong enough, because it doesn’t have enough time to melt before reaching the surface. That’s why it can snow above 32º at times.

Regardless, this is a WARM front pushing northeast into the region, and as such some amount and thickness of milder air aloft will turn folks from snow and sleet to a mix of sleet and rain as far north as the Rt. 2 corridor in northern MA after an initial snow burst that should arrive mid to late morning (roughly 9am to noon).

Some freezing rain may form in the later afternoon and early evening, but that would likely be in the high terrain of the southern Berkshires, southwest hilltowns and northwest CT.

By around sunset IF the secondary strengthens fast enough closer to the coast, we should see intermittent mixed precip south of Rt. 2 and snow/sleet along and north of Rt. 2 turn back to all snow sometime after 7pm or 8pm as colder air gets pulled southward into the region.

This would additional accumulations, and snow could last into the pre-dawn hours before more scattered snow showers wind down Saturday morning.

At this point I think a coating to 3″ looks likely from northern CT up to either the level of Rt. 9 in WMass/CMass or as far north as the Rt. 2 corridor in northern MA, with 3-6″ north of there. I also think some areas in southern VT, southwest NH and far northwest MA will see pockets of 5-8″, but I would think 3-6″ does it for most folks up that way, but I will update again tomorrow morning, of course.

Have a great night!