Good evening folks, freezing rain is knocking on the door of the New York / New England state line at MA and CT, and will continue to build east into the greater WMass region between 6pm and 9pm.

Ice accretion should begin just about as soon as rain starts to fall given that temps are slowly falling at the moment and in the mid 20s to low 30s across the region, so travel will become hazardous fairly quickly, and certainly before midnight.

When I look “upstream” which is the area from which our weather is coming, I’m seeing temps through central PA in the upper 20s to low 30s with much milder temps way out in western PA.

Cold air is also harder to displace out of WMass regional valleys like the Pioneer Valley, and so I’m concerned that models are displacing cold air out of the region faster than how reality may end up playing out.

In other words, your home, weather station, and car thermometers will be something to pay attention to tonight and any time on Monday morning.

Of course, I hope the milder air moves in so we can more quickly end the period of freezing rain and change to plain rain, but there’s a growing chance that instead of a tenth of an inch to a quarter inch of ice accretion in most areas, we could see more like two-tenths of an inch up to half an inch of ice accretion, which could cause some isolated tree damage and power outages, and of course prologned slippery travel.

Again, along and north of the Route 2 corridor in MA, and up into SVT and SWNH is where the heavier ice accretions will take place, with less to the south.

During any lulls we should see freezing drizzle or plain drizzle if the temp is above freezing.

High terrain areas in this setup are more likely to get above freezing faster than colder valley locations where colder air can get trapped.

I will be up super early tomorrow to post a report as far before 6am as possible, with full report by 7:15am, but suffice it to say, icing is on the way, and it would be smart to avoid travel if it’s possible.

Safe travels to all, and have a great night, Dave.