Good evening everybody, this report is going to be shorter as I am off to a friend’s party to celebrate a lifetime of hard work, and I think I’ve advertised this major winter storm system quite a bit over the past days, including today.

However, I did want to quickly discuss the fact that recent short-term guidance has come in with a colder signal, along with the fact that snow is set to arrive sooner than expected more like 8am to 11am from south to north, which was increase of 2 hours faster than originally expected.

That means that the heaviest snow is now expected between about 3pm to 10pm.

We’ll see how this plays out, but I have not seen a thump of snow modeled this intensely in a long time, maybe since the Blizzard of 2013 almost 13 years ago when I personally observed snow accumulation of 9″ in 2 hours in Franklin County. I don’t think this is that intense, but it’s gonna be serious, I think.

SNOW THUMP 2026
A mid-level front is going to form as milder (but still cold) moist air slams into our Arctic air mass about 2-3 miles up, which is expected to cause intense lift / upward motion, pushing that moist air rapidly into an area aloft that will form snowflakes efficiently.

This mid-level front formation is called “frontogenesis” and appears set to produce a THUMP of heavy snow with 1-3″ per hour rates, which may last for 5-9 hours depending on EXACTLY where it sets up, but visibility will be way reduced tomorrow afternoon and evening, and travel is not advised.

Yes, I still think some sleet may mix in later in the evening to southern and central parts of CT, which may even flip to sleet for a shorter time in southern towns of the 4 northern CT counties, but at this point, I don’t think the snow/sleet line tracks north of there.

In those areas, roughly 10-16″ is expected, and that goes for the downsloping area of western Bennington County VT.

However, I believe it’s all snow for the rest of us (far northern CT on north through WMass, CMass, SVT and SWNH), and given the expected high snow ratios of 15:1 or even 18:1 (that is 15″ of snow or 18″ of snow to 1″ of liquid precipitation – “normal” is 10:1) with over an inch of precip expected, this should put us into a widespread 12″-20″, with up to 2 feet in localized spots.

Further, if ratios spike up to or above 20:1, some folks may see something like 24-28″ of snow, but that would be the exception, and likely relegated to the Worcester Hills, or parts of the eastern Berkshires into the western hilltowns.

That would be the max that I can see at this time, but I am raising my totals ahead of this system up to 12-20″ for most of us (up from 10-18″).

The bust potential is if the mid-level warm air that WILL change areas like Long Island, Block Island and southern coastal CT to sleet for a time is drawn further north, then some areas in northern CT would see a bit less, but then you’d have an inch of sleet on top of heavy snow.

It’s hard to see how the snow shield would become much less intense given what we’re seeing upstream and guidance.

The bottom line is a major snowstorm is on the way, with major impacts, and I will absolutely be up early to produce and publish an updated comprehensive report in the morning. Have a great night.