Good afternoon everybody, after receiving around a tenth to up to a quarter inch of plain rain mostly south of Rt. 2 earlier today with some scattered showers thereafter, our main rather nasty-looking slug of precipitation is pushing its eastern-most flank of rain into eastern NY at 5pm.

START TIME
From the time of this post through about 8pm or so precipitation will fill in across the greater WMass region from west to east as a weak but juicy system tracks south of us along a warm front, as colder air drains from northeastern New England into southwestern New England north of the the southern CT, RI and southeast MA sub-regions.

PRECIP TYPES
We’ll likely start as rain or perhaps as a mix of sleet and rain in northern areas, but, as the steady and heavier precipitation falls, it will dynamically cool the surface as colder air continues to drain in from the north and northeast, flipping us to freezing rain and sleet in much of WMass, CMass and far northern CT, with rain further south.

SVT and SWNH should flip to sleet and then mix with and change to snow toward midnight.

COLD AIR DRAIN & DEEPER COLD LAYER
Interestingly, this is a rare setup where we may see more sleet and/or snow due to a deeper cold air layer drain down into the ocean plain far to our east, the CT River Valley in our region and the Hudson Valley to our west.

Some guidance is showing more freezing rain in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, and southern CMass highlands as a result, so that’s something to watch.

ICE ACCRETION
Freezing rain with ice accretions over a quarter inch are most likely to be found in the southern and central Berkshires, western Hampden County into towns like Middlefield, Huntington and Worthington down into the Litchfield Hills of northwest CT, and over into southern central MA down into the Tolland highlands of northeast CT.

SLEET FEST?
Lastly, I am still concerned that Hampshire County could see moderate to heavy sleet for a time after 8pm, with accumulations up to an inch or two, extending east into the vertical middle of Worcester County.

AMOUNTS/TYPES
I think that northeast Berkshires County through much of Franklin County into far northern CMass and up into SVT and SWNH should see 2-5″ of snow and sleet.

South of there, a coating to 3″ of snow and sleet is possible down to the level of the Mass Pike along with areas of freezing rain ice accretion up to a third of an inch or so most likely in the high terrain aside the valley, with plain rain down near Hartford CT and the southern and low elevation parts of northern CT.

HOW FAR SOUTH DOES IT SNOW?
This is storm is a mess of precip types, road conditions, etc., but the bust potential in it is if the cold drain is stronger just aloft which could change folks to snow even as far south as the Pike after midnight, creating more accumulation everywhere.

All it takes is a one or two degree change, so I will be watching for signs of that.

I am off to rehearsal with my band King Radio as we are playing Back Porch Fest in Hamp on March 27th, but I will be back and post a brief update sometime by 9pm or so.

Again give yourself extra time tomorrow morning for any work or necessary travel… Dave