Good afternoon everybody, the morning report still covers our incoming rain and freezing rain expectations at the moment, and I will update on tonight’s system by around dinner time. However, I wanted to put a spotlight on Sunday afternoon to Monday morning’s incoming weather as it’ll be a noticeable change from the past few days.

After tonight’s rainfall and freezing rain in northern and elevated areas (generally at or above 1000 feet in WMass, northern CMass and SVT / SWNH), we may end as some snow showers in the morning and then the storm will pull away to the east.

A cold front will then swing into the region, and by very late afternoon, and probably more like early evening into the overnight period, we’ll see a strong upper low swing right over New England, causing temps of under -35ºC to develop a few miles aloft.

Of course, it won’t get that cold at the surface, but such deep cold moving overhead will cause the rate at which temperatures decrease from surface to sky, which is also known as the lapse rate, or thermal lapse rate.

When you have steeper lapse rates due to a quicker decrease in temp up to the same altitude, that A) allows for more buoyancy of air parcels, allowing for thunderstorms to form in the summer and heavier snow showers or even snow squalls to form in the winter, and B) it allows stronger winds aloft to “mix down” to the surface.

This is my main set of concerns for Sunday evening and night, is that we’ll see westerly winds develop and gust 30-45mph overnight, with potential for a 50mph gust in the Berkshires, as well as a chance for some heavier snow showers or even a band of snow squalls to track east into and through WMass and far northern CT.

If these squalls develop, we could see a quick coating to an inch of snow with lowered visibility in gusty wind and blowing snow, and quick change in road conditions.

This threat should end by dawn Monday morning, which looks cold and windy with wind chills down into the single digits for some of us.

Have a great rest of your afternoon and I will post again this evening for our incoming system, for which Winter Weather Advisories are still up for a freezing rain threat in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, northern CMass and SVT/SWNH.