Good afternoon everybody, please allow me to be frank with all of you at the outset of this post… please indulge me for a few minutes (again, full DATA report comes later today – this post explains why the hair on my neck has started to stand up).

I truly hope I am wrong with what I’m about to say, and that this storm somehow busts, doesn’t phase fast enough or well enough, tracks too far away from the southern coastline (this would be the biggest reason for lower snow totals, by the way) produces areas of sinking air that knock down snow totals, fails to produce the wind estimates that are trending higher and higher, etc.

Why do I say all that?

Well, as you all know by now, I LOVE SNOWSTORMS, however, I do not love when people deal have to handle tough negative impacts from heavy wet snow, outages, wind damage, and all of the other major detriments that can result from big late-season nor’easters.

And if I’m being honest with you all, I have not seen a storm developing of this magnitude in a very long time, probably since back in the mid-2010s (Blizzard of 2013, Winter of 2013-14, February 2015, etc.).

Sure, the mid-March 2023 wet snow titanic dump of 1-4 feet is an exception, and is not to be minimized, but that didn’t have the wind component that this storm is setting up to produce.

The bottom line is that I’m suddenly waking up to the fact that what is forming is a classic form of a Miller A storm.

For a quick nerd-out, J.E. Miller was a meteorologist back in the 1940s that classfied a few different types of east coast winter storms (Miller A, B and C).

The Miller A classic form is a storm that forms down in the Gulf, translates across the southeast U.S., hits the Carolina coast, picks up Atlantic moisture and runs up the eastern seaboard.

This form of Miller A is going to tap a deep plume of Pacific-origin moisture stretched across the northern Gulf as a powerful upper low induces our *new* surface low to form off of the NC/VA coastline.

A potent shortwave in the trough will then dive in and cause the trough to tilt “negatively” and “capture” the surface low while it deepens rapidly, and *potentially* tugs it closer to the coast.

That is the trend I am seeing at mid-day in the guidance and from what I can see in the atmosphere.

If everything aligns the way it appears now, folks, a heavy wet wind-driven snow storm is on our doorstep.

With the potential for 6-12″ of snow for most of us, 10-16″ in northern CT, eastern Hampden County and southern CMass, and with perhaps 3-6″ or 4-8″ in SVT and SWNH, if I lived south of the Rt. 2 corridor in MA or CT or RI, I would prepare for power loss, in case it happens in your neighborhood.

I don’t say that lightly, and I don’t want to be hyperbolic, and I don’t want to alarm anybody, but I have to be honest about what I’m seeing.

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

But for now, I think that snow will be a wetter consistency, and northerly gusts are trending into the 35-55mph or even 40-60mph range for Monday morning.

All you need is 4-5″ of heavy wet snow with some gusts over 35mph to knock some limbs down, so while I can’t guarantee what you, in your neighborhood, in your town are going to see and experience, this is the one time this winter I’m gonna tell you to make sure you can cope without power for 1-3 days, if the worst comes to pass.

If it doesn’t, well you’ll have some extra chili or candles on hand!

That’s what I have for this mid-day period of Saturday.

To wrap up: we have some snow showers this later afternoond and evening that bring some coatings for some. Then Sunday snow showers start mid to late afternoon, then steady snow arrives in the evening, and travel conditions go downhill fast.

The storm then really ramps up in the pre-dawn hours leading through Monday morning, and should last well into Monday afternoon.

Full report comes later today with any changes or notes to convey to you just as soon as I can put it together (and give my eyes a rest for a bit).

Thanks very much, I know that’s a lot, but I want to be as clear as I can be, more soon, Dave.