Good evening everybody, I’ve been seeing a lot of analysis and graphics and meteorological kerfuffle about westward model jogs, and folks holding on to the potential for at least a moderate hit further west into our region for Sunday, but at the moment, I just don’t see it happening.

We have to see what transpires between the upper level energy diving south into the Great Lakes late this week, along with the orientation and strength of high pressure just west of that feature to get a better sense of how the upper trough will be carved out, and hence how it will help guide the track of the exploding surface low center… this will truly be a very powerful winter storm that develops off of the Carolina coastline.

Those are the known players, but the unknown is how an upper ridge to the east of that coastal low waxes or wanes due to whatever convection is brought to life by this future potent storm, as a stronger ridge to the east of the storm could act like a bumper and tuck it closer to the Cape.

If you’re on the Cape, Nantucket or the Vineyard, you could have the Blizzard of 2026 on your hands with potential for heavy snow and wind gusts 40-65mph, so folks down there need to follow local outlets.

Still, I think we’re still looking at mostly a miss here, and given how powerful this system is going to be, it will likely vacuum very dry and cold air on its northwest flank through the greater WMass region, which tends to produce sharp cutoffs in snow shields, so many of us probably will see nothing at all.

What we do know is that it’s going to be cold with lows tonight of -5 to 5º, and cold again tomorrow with highs 15-20º, followed by an Arctic front that will slice through the region, delivering wind chills of -10º to -25º below zero by early Friday morning.

To be honest, I’m surprised that Cold Weather Advisories have been not hoisted yet, but I imagine they will tomorrow, and if not, then I’m telling you to be prepared for a very cold and breezy Thursday night into Friday morning, for cripes sake (as my Nana used to say)!

Friday features highs mostly in the single digits to low teens, with below zero temps again Friday night, to be followed by a cold and sunny Saturday with highs again in the 15-20º range and lows near 0º.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy and cold, and I will update you as we get closer in terms of any potential impacts, but for now I don’t really see any (other than a pick up in northerly wind gusts Sunday night into Monday, which will crash wind chill readings all over again).

Did I say it was gonna be cold? ;-)

Have a great night, and if you’d like to support my work during my 12th annual Support Drive, you can do so at the secure link below, and I thank you very much, Dave.

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