Good late afternoon folks, while I’m watching some existing cells pushing towards western CT (mainly southern Litchfield into Fairfield County area, though one or two could hit Litchfield County), I am more interested in a Lake Ontario supercell which has erupted during this later afternoon.

The race is essentially on between that cell being sustained and/or strengthening for long enough due to both the heat of the day as well as interaction with high humidity & any outflow boundaries from the thunderstorms in south-central NY.

These localized boundaries can help produce convergence and lifting of unstable air.

However, this is forming near the end of the day, and as temps drop the atmosphere moves towards stabilizing and less storm activity.

Anyway, best I can tell, it’s the post-8pm timeframe through 11pm which is our best chance for a strong to potentially severe storm in the greater WMass region.

Between now and about 8pm or so, I think only isolated activity would be possible, and we should be mostly just hot, humid, and mostly rain-free.

Have a great rest of your afternoon, Dave.