Good afternoon folks, just wanted to post a quick update here to say that these slow-moving, saturated systems that try to lift northward into drier, higher pressures to our north tend to produce sharper northern cutoffs to the precipitation (or in this case, rain) shields, producing big variations in rain totals.

For this late afternoon into early evening, we’ll continue to see showers lift up to the level of the Pike, and remain concentrated mostly in north-central and northeast CT into far southern Worcester County.

Another issue with pinpointing rain totals is that these slow-moving setups can create downpours that don’t move much as there is no strong steering flow, which can cause big spikes in totals

In other words, folks nearby these rain dumpers can see WAY less rain, so the attached rain totals chart produced by the NWS Boston office is a best estimate at this point, with potential for folks along and south of the Pike to see substantially more than this, and folks north of the Pike to see less than what’s indicated here.

It’s going to come down to how far northward the boundary can lift tonight from just off the southern New England coast, as rain tries to redevelop along it while the storm tracks east-northeastward.

I do expect the steadiest and heaviest rainfall to develop later this evening in northern CT, and more towards midnight in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning for north of the Pike, lasting through Tuesday morning and tapering off sometime during Tuesday afternoon, as the storm pulls east and away.

I will try to post again later tonight before bed with a quick update, hope you enjoy your evening, Dave.