Good afternoon folks, while I still expect that a smoke plume off of Lake Ontario will track east-southeast into our region and dim the sun later this afternoon and evening with some potential ground smoke, the thickest/main plume has taken a bit more of a southerly dive through the morning which should impact less of the region today compared to earlier thoughts.

We have a cold front on the way from the north being pressed southward by an upper level trough (you can sort of see the southward-bulging arc in the clouds north of New England along and north of the St. Lawrence River and southernmost Quebec).

This is doing good work to push the plume now over CT and far southwest MA (southern Berkshires and parts of Hampden County) slowly south and east and away from the greater WMass region.

Still, that plume will impact northernmost CT this afternoon, but likely pull south of the MA/CT line with time, only to watch another thinner plume arrive later this afternoon and evening as it works east off of Lake Ontario.

This thinner smoke coverage will also allow temps to climb ahead of the cold front to the mid 80s in the valley, and maybe towards the upper 80s along the CT River.

This would also help southwest breezes mix down and gust over 20mph at times later this afternoon ahead of the front.

Air quality is still lower today, and Air Quality Alerts continue all day, but some of the quality values have been slowly decreasing in the valley, so that’s good.

After tonight, Friday’s air quality should improve substantially.

SATELLITE DOWN
As for the other part of the headline, the single most important satellite (the GOES-19) for the east coast of the U.S. is down, and there is no timeline for its repair.

So you know, over 90% of satellite data is ingested into the numerical weather prediction model guidance we use to help forecast upcoming weather changes, so this is no small issue.

All this to say, the entire weather community is going to be hamstrung to some degree for a while until this satellite is back up and operational, as the GOES-18 (used for the west coast) provides some cover for us, but is not nearly as detailed for the east coast as GOES-19.

I will do the best I can with what I’ve got, like I always try to do, but I thought you should be aware of this, which is also why I deleted the smoke plume graphic from this morning’s report, as it was from yesterday just before #19 went out of commission!

Anyway, carry on, and if you’re nearby please come to see my band King Radio next to the Northampton Brewery 6-8pm, it’s free, super fun, filled with harmonies, and we’ll have 30 songs at the ready for you, including some fun TV themes, guest singers, and lots of originals, we’ve worked very hard to prepare.

Enjoy the rest of your day, Dave.