Good evening folks, our storm’s development is well underway, and it’s already doing its first north-northwesterly hook with the potential for not one but two loop-de-loops before it’s drawn westward into the southern NJ coast, stalls for a bit later Sunday and then ejects northeast through far southern New England on Monday – a 3-day event, which is a rarity. Let’s dive into the latest details.

There several points to make in chronological order about this system as of this evening:

DRY AIR WINS FOR A WHILE
There is dry air still working southward into this system as it cranks up to our south, pushing southward off of the high pressure system to our north. This will help dry out incoming rain bands that are already on shore in southeastern New England and pushing into northeast CT and CMass tonight, and further northwest eventually into WMass.

This means that it’s likely that the first couple-three bands that push into our region will be broken up into scattered showers for later tonight and through Saturday morning into the early afternoon or so.

The main impact overnight and more so as Saturday morning unfolds is a slow increase in northeasterly wind gusts up into the 25-40mph range at times.

THEN MOIST AIR WINS… WIND PICKS UP
As our storm loops its way north and northwestward by Saturday afternoon and night, that dry air will lose the battle and become by increasingly heavier and more copious moisture and rainfall bands that continue to work in from east to west or southeast to northwest off of the ocean and into the greater WMass region by mid-late afternoon, and especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

This is when we will see our winds pick up and start gusting 30-50mph at times, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

SUNDAY MORNING OUTAGES POSSIBLE
On Sunday morning, our storm will be positioned just south of Long Island and most likely tracking westward and then west-southwest towards the southern New Jersey coastline, absolutely raking Long Island which likely will experience numerous outages, which likely transpires from the New Haven CT southwest to the CT/NY border and NYC metro.

This will also be the time when the strongest wind is likely to be dragged through the greater WMass region with gusts of 35-55mph at times, highest end of that range in the high terrain areas in northern CT, CMass and WMass along east-facing slopes.

I expect scattered power outages to develop late Saturday night through Sunday morning in the hilly terrain of those areas, especially along and south of the Pike.

LONG-DURATION OF WIND GUSTS, LEAF-DOWN
We haven’t had a longer-duration of wind like this in a while, and with the full leaf-out still in place, the leaves will catch all of that wind, and we’ll see areas of leaf-down, especially where gusts are highest, or in bursts during actual strong gusts.

With wet roadways, pasted wet leaves will create slick conditions for travel, so please, please be careful if you come across leaf-covered roadways, as I’ve known of people that got into bad accidents during these kinds of setups.

PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
So, we’ve got scattered light to moderate showers late tonight into early afternoon on Saturday, followed by my more numerous showers later Saturday afternoon into the night and Sunday morning, heavy at times.

But we’ll continue to see wind gusts of 25-40mph by later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with periods of onshore-tracking showers, and that should last into Monday as this system is finally ejected northeast and out to sea as it weakens.

Highs are going to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s through this event, and I will be updating you first thing in the morning.

Have a great night!