Good late-afternoon everybody, we’ve entered our lull after earlier showers, thunderstorms and downpours moved through with the warm front. Smoke also moved into the region, and air quality indices have risen to well over 100 in many parts of our region as Air Quality Alerts continue through this evening.

We’ve already got a severe-warned thunderstorm out ahead of the main line, and it has a history of producing wind damage. This cell will track east-southeast and likely into the southern Berkshires and Litchfield County CT either side of 6pm.

These lone cells have to be watched as they can sometimes become rotating discrete cells, but for now there is no evidence of rotation, so that’s good.

Beyond that cell (and any other showers, downpours or storms that start to bloom around dinner time) it’s the 7-10pm or 11pm timeframe when the main cluster of showers, downpours, and thunderstorms will track east-southeast through our region.

While it’s possible that the presence of smoke along with the loss of surface heating we experienced during this afternoon (temps have decreased about 10 degrees already off of their earlier highs, now mostly in the 60s) may tamp the severe threat, the potential still exists for localized straight-line wind damage, street flooding from torrential downpours, and/or a weak tornado, especially south of the Pike in the direction where the stronger dynamics are.

If you hear thunder this evening, be sure to get inside and away from windows.