Good afternoon everybody, as we near closer to tomorrow night’s cold frontal passage, the trend has been for a slight expansion of strong to severe thunderstorm chances to the east well into all of northern CT, all of WMass and CMass, and all of SVT and SWNH.

In addition, given that lapse rates (i.e. the change with temperature from lower altitude to higher altitude) aloft at the mid-levels look to be steeper, this may introduce the chance for larger hail to form as any hailstones that do form can get lofted higher into the atmosphere due to instability higher up in the sky vs. just down near the surface.

For tonight, we’ll be dry with our lows (after a very warm day) settling down into the upper 50s to low 60s.

For Saturday, we could see an isolated shower or clap of thunder at any point from late morning into the mid to late afternoon, though most of us should remain mostly dry as highs climb into the low 80s to low 90s as dewpoints start to creep up.

It’s the timeframe comprising the late afternoon and especially into the first part of the evening when scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely to be tracking east-southeast through our region, the way it looks now.

Again, strong gusty winds with some localized damage, larger hail, and torrential rain are all on the table, especially if the mid-level lapse rates continue to trend and then are actualized as being steeper over the region.

This could keep updrafts and strong/severe storms going past sunset, so I can’t rule out quite the light show before midnight tomorrow night.

I will play to update again tomorrow morning, and I hope you have a great night!