Good afternoon everybody, as of 3pm our temps have shot up into the mid 70s to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s readings in the lower CT River Valley.

However, the air is comparatively dry with dewpoints in the 50s to a few low 60s. That difference between air temp and dewpoint temp is called “dewpoint depression”.

The attached chart shows “DewDeps” values in the 20s, and since it follows that the higher the number goes the drier the air is, we’re not working with a lot of moisture ahead of our incoming wave.

To get severe weather, we generally “like” to see:
1. Humid air masses in place
2. An element that will strongly lift surface air skyward
3. Strong-enough changes in wind speed or direction from surface to sky
4. Temps dropping pretty quickly with height

We’ve got #3 and #4 in place, but not #1, and #2 is delayed in its arrival and won’t be all that strong, so at this stage I believe it’s more likely than not that #2 will mostly “miss” the connection with #3 and #4 down deeper into much of WMass, CMass and northern CT by the time it gets here between 4-10pm, with a better chance of stronger storms north of the Rt. 2 corridor.

The picture I’m painting is that while I can’t rule out a strong thunderstorm along with a few scattered showers and/or garden-variety t-storms anywhere in the greater WMass region, I think the threat significantly lowers the further south of the Rt. 2 corridor you go in MA and CT, with any strong to potentially severe storms relegated to north of the Rt. 2 corridor, and especially further north into SVT and SWNH and points north.

I will keep an eye on things and update you as warranted no matter how it plays out, thanks, Dave.