Good afternoon folks, we’ve gotten that partial clearing I was saying was looking more likely than not, and it has bumped temps up a bit, now in the low 70s to low 80s (81º in Amherst as of 2pm). It’s also gotten more humid.

The saving grace of this set up from becoming a wider-spread higher-impact event is that greater wind shear is found the further north you go vs. the better instability due to increased surface heating is further south you go.

Even though I still think we’ll see more isolated activity setting up roughly south of the Rt. 9 corridor in WMass and CMass, the Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a Tornado Watch for much of northern CT, all of WMass and CMass east of the Berkshires (the Berkshire / SVT Watch expires at 3pm) and Cheshire County NH are under Tornado Watches through 7pm.

I still think much of the activity moves through by 5pm or 6pm, but, as you can see, we already have southerly gusts blowing 30-45mph with the increased heating ahead of our incoming squall line which is now located in a southwest-oriented line from near Schenectady NY (just west of Albany) to east of Binghamton NY and tracking east towards the greater WMass region.

There is ample low-level turning of the air ahead of this line, and one or two tornadoes are possible this afternoon between 3-6pm in our region.

There is plenty of strong wind shear with this line, so strong straight-line and localized damaging wind gusts could develop, even if there isn’t any thunder given that these storms are “low-topped”, and not towering cumulonimbus hail producers.

Again, I believe the strongest weather which could also include straight-line damaging wind gusts, is generally along and north of the Rt. 9 corridor in WMass and CMass, but isolated strong to severe activity is still possible in southern parts of WMass and CMass down into northernmost CT.

I will continue to monitor this situation, and update you as warranted, thank you, Dave.