Good morning everybody, we’re in the calm before the storm and I want to start off by saying that this IS going to be remembered as the Blizzard of 2026, but not for the greater WMass region, except for perhaps Windham County CT and southeastern Worcester County, points southeast. That’s where the heaviest weather is going to transpire with gusts up to 60mph possible, and snowfall rates of 2”-3.5” per hour possible during the height of the storm (which for all of us, is Monday morning 4am ‘til about noon).

For the rest of us, this will be a memorable late-season major nor’easter with heavy snow and strong wind gusts that caps off one of the strongest winters we’ve endured in over a decade.

I don’t want to make light of it, and I don’t want to be hyperbolic about it, either, and some of the model guidance yesterday was painting a perfect storm for the WMass region (i.e. storm tucked into just south of the Vineyard), and this morning we’ve trended a bit away from that with a storm track off of the DelMarva Peninsula over The Benchmark, which is about 75 miles south of Nantucket.

With that all said, the bottom line is that a major snowstorm is on the way.

POWER OUTAGES
First of all, the power outage threat has decreased, as this storm will dynamically cool the lower atmosphere from the top down with strong lift and snowfall rates, and as winds back from north-northeast early Monday morning to northerly late in the morning to afternoon, we’ll get increasingly powdery snow consistency.

Therefore, the stronger outage potential will be over southern central MA, far eastern Hampden County and northern CT nearer to the storm center, and away from much of WMass, SVT and SWNH.

Still, we’re gonna see wind gusts of 30-50mph, maybe up to 55mph at times, and so some isolated outages will probably occur in any part of the region.

If you live in high terrain areas (where higher gusts tend to be produced), a power loss would be more significantly felt because we’re gonna be cold Monday night, Tuesday and especially Tuesday night with lows in the single digits, so it’s a potential worth preparing for, especially if you live at elevation (though most highlanders are usually always ready, anyway).

SNOWFALL TOTALS
Given that the low will probably track more south of the Islands, and given that we’re going to get a drier northerly drain of cold air funneling down the CT River Valley from VT/NH into WMass, I think we could see a kind of inverted Triangle of Disappointment with lower totals up near Brattleboro/Keene down into the Northampton region, with more like 10-16” in Hampden County, much of CMass and northern CT.

The same lower-total thinking goes for the Housatonic / Walloomsac River Valleys in the Bennington VT down to Great Barrington stretch of far southwest VT into western Berkshire County.

I am keeping both of those valley areas at 6-12”, but don’t be surprised if it’s in the lower part of that range, or if some of these areas come in at more 4-8” depending on real-time alternating snow bands that produce sinking air on either side of them. I could also see 4-8” in far northern SVT/SWNH if dry northerly air winds there.

The rest of WMass, CMass and northern CT should see 10-16”, with some 14-20” amounts possible in Tolland or especially Windham County CT, and especially southern CMass with southeastern Worcester County possibly exceeding 20” in a few spots.

TIMING
A few snow showers arrives later this afternoon, and then the snow shield presses south to north from northern CT to SVT/SWNH between 5-9pm, so much of WMass sees snow arrive between 6-8pm.

Snow picks up steadily quickly with light to moderate intensity, then becomes heavy at times overnight through Monday morning with 1-2” per hour snowfall rates possible, along with blowing and drifting of snow as north-northeasterly winds pick up and gust 30-50mph Monday morning.

Again, 4am-Noon is the brunt of this storm for wind and snow, and travel is not advised in the morning if you can help it (though not everybody can, so if that’s you, you must give yourself extra time and pack a shovel if you get stuck on the roads).

Wind and snow peaks in the morning, then through the afternoon we get periods of variously intense snowfall, sometimes light, sometimes moderate, sometimes heavier bursts with gusts coming down into the 25-40mph range out of the north, straight down the valley floor.

Snow will break up between 4-8pm from west to east as the storm pulls away, and I will be sure to post satellite pics because it will be a gorgeous-looking comma head shape, the kind we haven’t seen in years around here.

POST-STORM PERIOD
Monday night will be cold in the upper teens to mid 20s, and then we’re dipping for 24 hours back into the Arctic with sunny highs in the upper teens to upper 20s with lows in the single digits.

Beyond that, another Clipper system brings light snow accumulations of a coating to 2”, with even more snow possible by Thursday night and again next Monday, so there’s plenty of Winter weather left to endure, from what I’m seeing.

I will keep you updated with reports later today and throughout the event!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Overcast today, a few light snow showers possible
–Chance for snow showers increases later this afternoon in CMass and northeast CT with onshore flow
–Highs reach the upper 20s to mid 30s
–Snow arrives between 5pm to 9pm from northern CT into northern MA and SVT/SWNH
–Snow will become steady light to moderate quickly, and travel will become slick
–Lows drop down into the upper teens to mid 20s, making snow become less wet by morning, especially northern areas
–Snow and wind pick up as the pre-dawn hours wear on, heavy at times with 1-2” per hour snow rates
–Monday morning 4am to Noon is brunt of the storm, with northerly gusts 35-55mph at times causing blowing and drifting of snow and blizzard conditions at times with low visibility
–Power outage potential has gone down for SVT, SWNH, much of WMass, though scattered outages will occur with these types of gusts and potentially old wet snow from the Friday system hanging on trees
–Best chance for outages is southern CMass, northeast CT and eastern Hampden County where 2-3”/hour rates may fall for a time early to mid Monday morning
–Snow winds down to a light to moderate intensity with some heavier bursts through the afternoon as the storm pulls away, ending between 5-9pm, still gusty with northerlies 25-40mph at times
–Snow totals across the greater WMass region will likely range from 6”-20” from northwest to southeast (see report for more regional breakdown)
–Highs Monday in the 20s to near 30º, lows in the teens with breezy conditions
–Tuesday and Tuesday night we dig out amidst a brief Arctic blast with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens! Winter!
–By Wednesday, another Clipper system dives southeast and may bring more light snow accumulations of a coating to 2”
–By Thursday night into Friday morning another storm may bring warm advection snowfall changing to mix, capable of several more inches
–And by early next week there is another winter storm signal for more snow possible, so we’re in a late-winter stretch into early March

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:36am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:31pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 55 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 8:48am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 11:54pm tonight
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (28.3%)