Good morning folks, our multi-day sweet sunny stretch is coming to a close after today through Monday’s mid-day period, after which we’ve got some legit concern for heavier rainfall sweeping the greater WMass region with some scattered shower/thunder activity Monday evening, followed by a much more substantial area of rainfall and downpours Tuesday and Wednesday, which may linger into Thursday.

For today? GORGEOUS. Sunny, lovely, dry, warm, highs mid 70s to low 80s, low humidity, lighter winds, enjoy! Lows tonight dip into the mid to upper 50s, and Monday morning will be crisp and sublime. Seriously, this is mid-summer weather to deeply appreciate.

A good part of Monday looks nice as well, with early full sunshine and highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s prior to some clouds building by afternoon.

After that, we start to move back into a cloudier, rainier period for much of the upcoming work week, and that comes with risks of flash flooding in spots by mid-week (but not wind damage, hail, or tornadoes, as severe thunderstorms are not expected).

The reason why we’re facing more of a heavy rain / flash flood risk has mostly to do with the latitudinal position of incoming low pressure. For much of our severe weather events this year, low pressure has been tracking well north of us. This swings warm fronts through the region, draws hot and humid air up and into our region, and then swings strong cold fronts through, which tend to produce stronger thunderstorms.

However, this week’s setup features a surface low pressure center tracking south of our region, somewhere near the southern New England coastline, but that’s not set in stone yet, as it could come further north and closer to our latitude.

Regardless, this will be more of a winter-time track, which will combine with the broad lifting mechanism of an incoming upper trough and encourage air to efficiently rise, condense, and produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with downpours at times, and embedded run-of-the-mill thunderstorms.

So, some scattered showers or thunderstorms move in Monday evening and night, but then we should see a lull overnight into Tuesday morning with lows either side of 60º.

By Tuesday afternoon, our low pressure system will be developing to our southwest and pushing east, and sometime by afternoon or evening, moderate to heavier rainfall is expected to develop and be pushed into the greater WMass region Tuesday night into Wednesday for much of the day.

This likely causes street flooding in spots, and may prompt the hoisting of Flood Watches for parts of our region if these trends continue, with flash flooding possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as well.

Wet weather likely lingers to some extent in our region Wednesday night into Thursday as the surface low pulls away, but the upper trough pushes through the region and maintains instability across our hills and dales.

Highs Tuesday reach the 70s to low 80s, but Wednesday looks cooler with some folks not even reaching 70º! Lows will be mostly in the 55-60º range.

By Friday into next weekend, temps should rebound into the 70s to low 80s at least with partial sunshine and some isolated afternoon instability showers or thunderstorms possible.

Have a great rest of your weekend!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Gorgeous end to our weekend and multi-day sunny stretch
–Highs mid 70s to low 80s, dry, light wind, get out and soak it up!
–Lows tonight dip into the mid to upper 50s, partly cloudy
–Monday is our transition day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
–Early sunshine gives way to a partly cloudy afternoon with showers possible late in the day and evening, with a chance of thunder
–Lows Monday night dip into the upper 50s to low 60s
–By Tuesday and Wednesday, low pressure develops and tracks somewhere near southern New England
–This will help develop periods of showers, downpours and thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected
–Instead, heavy rain is the main concern with street flooding likely in spots, and flash flooding possible by Tuesday night into Wednesday due to slow-moving downpours
–Highs Tuesday are mostly in the 70s and Wednesday will only reach the upper 60s to mid 70s or so, with lows in the 55-60º range
–Periods of rain Tuesday afternoon, through the night and through Wednesday
–Scattered showers may linger longer into Thursday as an upper trough tracks through the region
–Partial sunshine returns by late Thursday through Saturday with afternoon isolated to scattered thunder possible

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:37am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:15am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 38 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 6:45pm this afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 3:18am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (91.3% Illumination)