Good morning everybody, active day has been well-advertised for days now with a cold front pushing into the region that will produce rainfall through the day with some high terrain areas changing to sleet and/or snow by middle of the day into early/mid afternoon, with most activity winding down between 5-8pm from west to east.

Our temps this early morning are well into the 40s to near 50º, but temps out in central NY impinging on eastern NY are in the 30s behind the front, so that colder air will cause our temps to peak into the upper 40s to mid 50s late morning and then drop through the day back into the 30s and 40s.

I can’t rule out a couple of thunderclaps or downpours, and showers will be of varying intensity with drizzle mixed in at times too as moisture gets concentrated over our region.

A secondary low pressure system is already developing to our south along the cold front, and will track along it and slowly intensify which will keep precipitation going well into the afternoon, and also help pull that colder air into the western high terrain (i.e. SVT, Berkshires, western hilltowns, northern Litchfield Hills).

As this whole system pulls east, so will colder air and thus a mix with and change to sleet and/or snow is expected in those western high terrain areas mentioned above, mainly above 1500 feet, but could even descend to 1000 feet in elevation.

This will cause northwest winds to pick up and gust 20-35mph at times this afternoon and evening, adding to a colder, late-winter feel with blustery conditions.

A coating to an inch or so of wet snow is possible, but best chance for any accumulation is far northeast Berkshires, far western Franklin County and the spine of the southern Greens, but again, accumulation has low chance of forming over areas mentioned.

Otherwise, precipitation in general quits between 5-8pm from west to east and lows will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s, so black ice is possible in the morning – watch your surfaces!

On Monday, we have to deal with the upper low/trough swinging east and through New England, and this will bring much colder temps aloft, allowing for convective showers to form by mid-day into the afternoon.

Many of these will be rainy, but some may drop snow and/or graupel, or a mix of all 3, as highs will only reach the upper 30s to upper 40s, so expect a more late-winter day tomorrow than an early-spring one!

Lows will plummet well into the 20s as the trough lifts east and away, so more black ice is possible Monday night into early Tuesday.

Beyond that, we rebound in temps and increase our sunshine, and save for a weak system bringing a few showers Tuesday night, mostly fair weather is expected Tuesday through Friday before more rain is possible next Saturday.

Highs reach the low 40s to low 50s Tuesday under mostly sunny skies with lows near freezing, and then highs should climb well into the 50s by Wednesday, and then the mid 50s to mid 60s by late week.

Have a great day, check out the Nutshell and Celestials below, and I will update by earlier in the afternoon!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Showers will track southwest to northeast through our region this morning and afternoon
–Highs rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s by late morning, then fall back into the 30s high terrain and 40s valley in the afternoon
–Rain mixes with or changes to sleet/snow in the high terrain of northern Litchfield County CT, Berkshires, western hilltowns and SVT
–Some mix or changeover also possible in parts of northern CMass and SWNH
–Coating to an inch or so is still expected for the highest peaks, mainly above 1500 feet
–Northwest winds pick up and gust 20-35mph behind the front ushering in colder air this afternoon
–Activity ends 5-8pm roughly, and lows drop into the mid 20s to low 30s
–Monday features upper trough moving through, which destabilizes the atmosphere
–This will cause a dry morning with partly sunny skies to turn mostly cloudy and convectively pop scattered showers or rain, graupel and snow, depending on elevation
–Highs only reach the mid 30s to mid 40s, lows plummet well into the 20s
–Tuesday through Friday should feature mostly fair weather with a few showers possible Tuesday night
–Highs Tuesday rebound into the low 40s to low 50s under sunny skies with lows in the mid 30s or so
–Wednesday’s highs reach well into the 50s with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s by late week
–Saturday may feature some rainfall as a system approaches our region

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:03am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 7:36pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 13 hours and 33 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON ROSE AT: 6:57am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 10:58pm tonight
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (6.1%)