Dave's Daily Report
July 5, 2026
8:36 am
FLOOD WATCHES ARE UP FOR NORTHERN CT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY. PERIODS OF SOAKING RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE RT. 2 CORRIDOR IN WMASS, CMASS & NORTHERN CT
Good morning everybody, thanks for all the reports yesterday! Luckily the WMass and CMass regions on northward mostly dodged the severe weather, which was impacted northwestern and central CT. For those folks, it was GNARLY with large hail up to 3” in diameter, severe thunderstorm wind gusts that felled trees and power lines, and up to 100,000 outages in the entire state of CT at the peak of the severe weather outbreak! We’re on the other side of that now, but as the old saying goes “droughts end in floods”, and we have a Flood Watch up for the entire Nutmeg State for Monday and Tuesday.
We’ll also get our share of rainfall in WMass and CMass, with less up into SVT and SWNH, but it looks like periods of soaking rain and showers will visit the region with the steadiest and heaviest rainfall ending up along and south of the Pike where 1-4” of rain could fall, with some indications of over 4” in parts of northern CT by Tuesday afternoon.
For today, we’re drying out with any MA/CT border light showers tracking east and away from the region.
Assuming we get out expected breaks of sunshine towards mid-day or so, highs should rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s, followed by more clouds pushing back in from the southwest as a new large-scale storm system (not a severe weather outbreak) develops and pushes east through the northern Mid-Atlantic towards a location south of New England.
This will push showers back into CT tonight and possibly up into southern parts of WMass with lows dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Periods of scattered showers during Monday will be found in northern CT and at times in southern parts of WMass and CMass, with some more isolated activity into SVT/SWNH, but the northward expansion of rainfall into the rest of our region will occur sometime on Monday afternoon and evening overnight into the first half of Tuesday.
This is when the heaviest rainfall looks to fall, and anywhere 1-4” is expected generally south of the Route 2 corridor, with the heavier 2”+ amounts relegated to more along and south of the Pike into CT. In fact, some areas may even pick up over 4” in parts of CT, which is why Flood Watches up because given recent downpours and thunderstorms, and rainfall of that magnitude, flash flooding would be possible by Monday night, most likely.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be cooler, only in the 70s with lows in the 50s Monday night and Tuesday night.
By Wednesday and Thursday, that storm kicks east of us, and high pressure will build in and bring sunshine along with highs in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s as humidity starts to creep up.
By Friday into Saturday, we’ll be as warm, but a bit more humid so some afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Have a great day!
“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell
YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Early morning showers along the MA/CT border east of I-91 will track east through NE.CT and southern CMass, and away by mid morning
–We’ll be mostly cloudy early with some breaks or periods of sun around mid day
–Highs will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with tolerable humidity, even fairly dry in northern areas
–Clouds will redevelop late today, and some scattered showers move into northern CT and southern parts of WMass tonight into Monday morning
–Areas of rainfall should expand northward with time on Monday, with the heaviest and steadiest rain bands arriving Monday evening through first half of Tuesday before the storm pulls east and away
–Highs Monday and Tuesday will only reach the low to mid 70s with lows in the 50s, so cooler climes are on the way for a few days
–By Tuesday afternoon we start to break up the rain shield and will begin drying out into Tuesday night
–High pressure takes control Wednesday and Thursday with sunshine and highs in the 80s, lows in the low to mid 60s
–Similar temps are expected Friday into Saturday with a bit more humidity and therefore some afternoon changes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but nothing looks severe at the moment
YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:20am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:29pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 15 hours and 9 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 10:51am this morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 11:30pm tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (73.5% Illumination)
A NOTE FROM OUR WEEKEND SPONSOR
Historic Deerfield
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Supported by Individual Community Members, and Sponsored by Historic Deerfield.
Historic Deerfield is a mile-long museum of history, architecture, and art in Deerfield, MA. Including 12 historic houses, a modern museum facility, and a kids’ discovery center, Historic Deerfield is open 9:30am-4:30pm, Wednesdays-Sundays.




