Good morning folks, and look at us – still moving around the surface of a hurtling giant Space Orb in our little 5 to 6 foot tall mostly-water fragile little bodies with our variously-sized egos, likely forgetting and remembering what a gift it truly is to have a few moments in this human experience together. And collectively, we’ll variously experience some weather changes this evening as a cold front helps pop showers, downpours, and some thunderstorms that will lead us into a cooler, drier, and more pleasant Sunday.

For today, it still won’t be oppressively humid but the humidity will creep up through the day. The main change is that cloud development became more pronounced overnight and into the morning, which is good news both for tamping down the hottest temps from being realized (assuming the clouds mostly hold) and tamping down the most severe weather, as it is the surface heating that is one key component to maximizing surface instability which serves as thunderstorm fuel.

Still, we’ll have some parameters in place for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening, namely decent wind shear, plenty of moisture, and strong forcing.

Highs will likely climb well into the 80s. Some folks in SVT may not hit 80º, and some folks in the lower valley may hit 90º, but mid to upper 80s for many should cover most of the high temps, again assuming a big hole in the cloud deck doesn’t form – then we’d be mid 80s to low 90s in many areas.

By afternoon, some isolated showers or a downpour / storm may form in the pre-frontal zone, but it’s mostly from 4pm onward, and especially dinner time forward that we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over NY and track east through the greater WMass region.

The best chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts (i.e. 58mph or higher) is in the Berkshires south into northwest CT, though any of us could see a localized damaging wind gusts, and/or hail which may grow to dime-size or so in some cases.

Torrential rain is always a threat with any thunderstorms, as we know, so some ponding of water is possible this evening.

The cold front will sweep through overnight and lows will drop to either side of 60º, leading us into a lovely Sunday morning with sunshine, and highs eventually reaching the 70s. Clouds will bubble up in the afternoon as a weaker upper level feature dives south through our region, and this should produce some scattered instability showers, with one of them possibly dropping small hail.

Lows Sunday night will bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s, leading us into the nicest day of the upcoming week, which will be Monday as temps rise into the mid 70s to low 80s under sunny skies.

From Tuesday through the end of the week, an upper ridge will develop to our south and that should help push more humid and warmer temps into our region with widespread 80s on Tuesday, with highs then reaching the mid 80s to low 90s mid to late week.

In addition, humidity looks to surge by Thursday into Friday (and possibly Saturday, too) with dewpoints well into the 60s to low 70s, so it’s gonna get muggy I believe late next week.

An isolated showers or thunderstorm is possible Thursday or Friday afternoon, but I don’t see any big rain makers in sight as of this writing.

Have a great day and I will update you later this afternoon!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–A bit more cloudiness around may help to slightly tamp temps down and curb the severe weather threat a little bit
–Call it a partly sunny day at times with clouds thickening into the afternoon
–Highs now likely reach the upper 70s to upper 80s
–A few low 90s are possible but only if we can develop some sunnier periods around mid-day, humidity increases later this PM
–Isolated to widely scattered showers between say 2-6pm, thunder possible
–5pm to 11pm is main strong to severe thunderstorm threat with localized damaging wind gusts and larger hail possible with heavy rain
–Best chance for a 60mph gust or higher is the Berkshires down into Litchfield County CT, points south and west
–Lows either side of 60º
–Cold front sweeps thru overnight, sets us up for a sunny Sunday morning
–Highs hang in the 70s on Sunday with afternoon clouds bubbling up
–An upper level feature drops south into the region, prompting formation of some scattered showers, or rumbles of thunder
–Lows in the 50s as we clear out
–Monday is gorgeous! Sunny, drier, seasonable highs in the 70s, lows upper 40s to mid 50s
–Tuesday sees warmth return, which lasts through end of the week
–Highs in the 80s Tuesday, and then potentially low 80s to low 90s Wednesday through Friday
–A few afternoon showers are possible late week

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:15am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:23pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 15 hours and 8 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 10:47am this morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 12:44am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (69.1%)