Good morning folks, we’ve got an active weather day ahead including impacts such as wildfire smoke pushing back into the region with Air Quality Alerts hosted across ALL of New England, followed by warm frontal showers and downpours, a spike in humidity later in the afternoon, and capped off by the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with potential for different flooding types along with a low chance for a tornado. So, as my old pal and bandmate F. Alex Johnson once said before a gig at the Smith College Dining Hall 30 years ago, “Let’s get down ta business, kids!”

We’re starting off with low humidity and more clouds than sunshine, as we await the passage of a smoke plume tied to the Canadian and Minnesotan wildfires. This plume will be pushed northeast and through the region by an approaching warm front by late morning into the first half of our Saturday afternoon.

Temps will be pleasant enough, with highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s, but air quality is expected to go downhill with AQIs increasing above 100 which starts to become noticeable for many, especially folks with respiratory stuff.

Fortunately this plume looks fairly short-lived, and should keep trucking out of here by dinner time, but Air Quality Alerts are up all day into the evening.

The warm front will also bring a spike in humidity by later in the afternoon, and a first round of scattered showers and downpours. The presence of smoke should tamp down instability a bit, making a chance for early-day thunderstorms less likely. Southwest winds will gust 20-30mph or so at times this afternoon, too.

As dewpoints come up into the 60s to low 70s, though, and as we pass into the later afternoon, I will be watching an approaching cold front that looks potent and will act on these higher dewpoints this evening. Assuming the smoke clears to the northeast, there wouldn’t be much inhibiting the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms mostly along and west of the I-91 corridor from developing.

In addition, the lower atmosphere will be rotating as you go up in height, which means there is a low chance for a tornado or two this evening, especially out in Berkshire County MA or Litchfield County CT.

I am expecting areas of downpours and very heavy rain, strong enough to at least cause street flooding in spots, if not a localized flash flood potential in spots.

Lastly, while there’s a low chance for hail, strong straight-line wind gusts with areas of wind damage will be a better possibility this evening with a Level 4 out of 7 likelihood for severe gusts (58mph or higher) just to our west in eastern NY as issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

This means that if you hear any thunder approaching this evening it should signal to you to get inside, with main impact time for this activity to be between 5pm-11pm.

Lows tonight will dip into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Moving forward, Sunday is BY FAR the weekend pick with sunshine that will extend into Monday, with highs both days in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Sunday will feature some northwest breezes.

By Tuesday, another sweeping warm front / cold front combo sweeps into New England thanks to a storm passing to our north, which will bring more showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning with strong weather possible.

Thereafter, the late week period should feature fair weather with seasonably warm temps.

I will keep an eye on things today and update when appropriate and when I can!

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Starting off nice and dry with low humidity
–However, several potential weather hazards are possible later today and tonight
–A warm front approaches the region and passes through by early afternoon
–This pushes a plume of smoke aloft and at ground level through our region, roughly 11am to 5pm
–At the same time, the first of two rounds of showers and downpours (scattered in coverage) work through the greater WMass region
–Smoke impacts may lessen intensity of this activity, and reduce chance for earlier isolated thunderstorms
–Highs reach the mid 70s to low 80s
–Humidity increases substantially deeper into the afternoon
–Southwest wind gusts of 20-30mph at times
–Much of the smoke likely clears the region behind the warm front and head of the incoming cold front tonight
–This sets the stage for the second round of a solid or broken squall line of showers, downpours, and thunderstorms, some of which will probably be strong to even severe
–Torrential rain, street flooding, straight line wind damage, isolated hail cores, and even a tornado or two is possible between roughly 5pm and 11pm this evening
–Lows drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s
–Sunday is the weekend pick and both Sunday and Monday look gorgeous with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s
–By Tuesday, clouds increase again as another strong cold front and storm system combo sweeps into the northeast
–Highs reach the low 70s to low 80s on Tuesday, and showers and thunderstorms are looking fairly likely by Tuesday night into Wednesday
–Fair weather follows to end the work week with highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday and Friday

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:30am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:22am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 52 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 10:27am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 10:47pm this evening
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (21.1% Illumination)