Good morning everybody, well with the snow that fell overnight, I’d say my allusion to that 3-6” line dropping south from the Rt. 2 corridor down toward the Pike played out to some degree, as the colder trend held yesterday with what actually played out.

It is certainly gorgeous out there this morning, but the heavy wet snow is a pain to move around, so take it easy, even if it is 2-6” of paste.

Before I get going here, I want to say that while this post will start he conversation about the Sunday/Monday storm, and while I may publish a quicker mid-day update, I will definitely be posting a multi-faceted, comprehensive weather report by late this afternoon.

That report will be sectioned and cover what I believe does have the potential to become an historic nor’easter and blizzard for parts of the southern New England region, especially in light of the weaker winters we’ve had around here since at least 2017-18, and really going back to the mid 2010s when this whole weather nut thing first gained some notice.

I have some personal biz to attend to this morning, so this will be more of a summary type of update, so I promise to “work the nerd” factor later on this afternoon.

For today, we get a break in the action with partial sunshine early, but a back door frontal boundary is going to push northwest to southwest later today, which will increase clouds and cause some snow showers to bloom again by late afternoon into the evening. Some fresh coatings to maybe up to an inch could be laid down by Sunday morning. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 30s with lows in the 20s overnight.

By tomorrow / Sunday, I will be monitoring the development of a type of storm I have not seen in many years, which is a classic setup with an upper level trough swinging into “the position” which is around western PA and eastern WV, already with its axis in a north-to-south (or “neutral”) configuration.

This help spawn a powerful low center off of the VA coastline which will undergo bombogenesis as its deepens rapidly, and should phase with this upper low which will pull it closer to the coastline than it previously looked like it would track a couple of days ago.

The low will rapidly intensify as it tracks northeast towards an area south of Nantucket by early Monday morning, and crank up a major nor’easter with heavy snow and high winds that will batter coastal areas.

With these ocean storms, you get an easterly flow off of Boston Harbor and Cape Cod Bay that pushes east to west ahead of the incoming snow shield that is tracking south to north.

This means that we’ll see scattered snow showers develop into CMass and northeast CT and then WMass by mid to late afternoon, with the snow shield probably expanding north into our region as early as 6pm and as late as 9pm or so by Sunday evening.

I expect that there will be a sharp cutoff in snowfall in the northwest fringe of the snow shield, which may impact northern parts of southern VT and southwest NH, but as of now it looks likely that this will at least be a moderate snow impact of about 4-8” with less far northwest, and more into CMass and northeast CT where a foot could fall.
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I have to make it clear here that if this storm continues to track closer to the coast, we could see snowfall on the order of the late January snowstorm we went through, especially south of the Rt. 2 corridor and east of I-91 in WMass, CMass and northern CT.

Not only that, but for the first time in a long time we’ll have WIND to contend with, and gusts could easily blow out of the northeast 30-50mph in falling heavy snow, and if things really come together, we could see gusts up to 60mph in a few spots.

This coupled with the likelihood of a wetter snow would mean outages for some folks, as well as blizzard conditions at times in heavy snow and gusts over 35mph, which could lead to whiteout conditions.

Yes, there’s more chances for snow this coming Wednesday and again on Friday, but going forward I am only going to be focusing on our Sunday to Monday system, as there’s a lot to analyze, organize, and convey to you, and it’s worth the focus.

Monday morning looks windy into the afternoon, and we could have periods of accumulating snow all the way through the afternoon, tapering off Monday night, so a long-duration event is also possible.

The Winter of 2025-26 has some serious legs still, and I will keep you updated with reports later today and throughout the event!

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Partly sunny for a while today, then clouds increase
–Snow showers at times for the Berkshires and southwest VT
–Highs reach the mid to upper 30s, lows 30s in the high terrain
–Snow showers develop this early evening as onshore flow increases
–A coating to an inch is expected overnight, mostly in WMass, SVT, SWNH and northwest CT
–Lows low to mid 20s, clouds linger
–Sunday highs are colder, in the low to mid 30s
–Upper low swings into western PA and causes bombogenesis off the VA coast
–Exact track to be determined, but onshore snow showers develop by mid to late afternoon
–Snow arrives Sunday evening by about 8pm or 9pm
–Snow falls moderate to heavy at times overnight, lows in the 20s
–Less snow north and west, more snow south and east
–Wind picks up and gusts out of the northeast 30-50mph at times by Monday morning
–Blizzard conditions are possible for some, especially east of the I-91 corridor AND south of the Pike
–Snow and wind may linger into Monday evening as the low centers at all levels of the atmosphere stack on top of each other
–Powerful storm on the way, light to moderate impacts north and west, moderate to major impacts south and east
–Tuesday is a lull in the action, followed by a light snow event possibly for Wednesday, and then a bigger winter storm by Friday
–More details in my late-afternoon report, which will cover every angle of this impending storm system, which may become quite memorable for coastal residents

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:37am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:30pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 53 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 8:21am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 10:37pm tonight
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (18.4%)