Dave's Daily Report

May 17, 2026

8:00 am

WARMTH CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH HEAT & HUMIDITY ARRIVING TUESDAY WHEN RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN IN PARTS OF OUR REGION. A SPOT SHOWER OR STORM TUES., SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WED

Good morning folks, it is nice and mild out there already with temps in the 50s and 60s, which will set us squarely off to the thermal races today under full sunshine with highs expected to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s as Summah Lovahs rejoice across the land. We may even see records tied or broken by Tuesday with even hotter temps, but we’ll get to that later in this morning’s report, and remember your Nutshell (Summary) and Celestials (Moon/Sun data) are at the end of this report).

As for today, westerly breezes are going to kick up and gust to 25mph at times which will produce a somewhat active but sunny and warm end to our weekend, so be sure to get out and enjoy this burgeoning surge of the 2026 Warm Season, because it won’t last into June even though more short-term heat (and humidity!) is on the way, as mentioned.

Lows tonight will hang in the 50s, and we should then see a repeat on Monday with highs again in the upper 70s to mid 80s with a bit less wind under mostly sunny skies.

Remember that it will be dry humidity-wise during this period, so the next two days are really a pair to enjoy! Lows will hang in the low to mid 60s, which will bring us to the summer peak of the week, which is Tuesday and Wednesday.

The setup for that is that we’ll see an upper ridge (an area of higher pressures aloft that fosters more sunshine and higher temps) building north from the southeast U.S. into the Mid-Atlantic states during this period, with surface high pressure southeast of us pumping in warm and humid southerly flow.

Because of the above, those two days will feature full-on summer heat AND humidity with highs rising into the mid 80s to low/mid 90s from high terrain (warm) to the valley (hot) along with increasing humidity with dewpoints rising well into the 60s to low 70s during that stretch.

In fact, below are many records that could be tied or broken on Tuesday:

–Amherst, MA: 93º in 2017
–Belchertown, MA: 94º in 2017
–Bennington, VT: 83º in 2021
–Greenfield, MA: 94º in 2017
–Hartford, CT: 91º in 2017
–Leverett, MA: 95º in 2017
–Norfolk, CT: 89º in 2017
–North Adams, MA: 84º in 2021
–Orange, MA: 85º in 2021
–Pittsfield, MA: 88º in 1962
–Westfield, MA: 90º in 2017
–Worcester, MA: 92º in 1962
–Worthington, MA: 89º in 2017

In addition, we’ll be in that pre-frontal hot and humid one which may spark some isolated showers, downpours or thunderstorms, especially along the western high terrain, Worcester Hills, or southern Green Mountains of VT.

Lows temps Tuesday night will be WARM, only in the 65-70º range, and then highs on Wednesday peak into the mid 80s to low 90s with a strong cold front approaching the region.

This is likely to at least spark showers and downpours, if not clusters of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms as get set to change their air mass out for a new, seasonable, more reality-based setup for later May.

As such, lows will dip into the 45-50º range (some 20 degrees cooler than the night before!) and then transition into highs on Thursday through Saturday in the mid 60s to low 70s range under sunny skies to end the week.

By the weekend, however, more rainfall is possible, so I will keep you updated.

Have a great rest of your weekend!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–High pressure continues to dominate our weather today
–Expect mostly sunny skies with warmer highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
–A few spots may creep into the upper 80s by mid/late afternoon
–Westerly gusts up to 25mph are possible, so breezy and warm!
–Lows tonight dip into the 50s under partly cloudy skies
–Upper ridge starts to climb the eastern seaboard toward New England Monday into Tuesday
–Mostly sunny again on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s
–By Tuesday humidity will be building as the ridge makes its farthest way north
–Heat will also peak on this day with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s
–Some records from 2017 and 2021 may be tied or broken for max daily temps
–Enough instability with heat and humidity will be present to spark some isolated thunderstorms that could get strong
–Lows Tuesday night will hang in the mid to upper 60s!
–Wednesday is our last hot day in this early summer type stretch with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s
–It will be quite humid still and a cold front pushes in to produce scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe
–Lows Wednesday night dip into the mid to upper 40s
–By Thursday, we settle back into seasonal reality for late May with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Thursday through Saturday, and lows in the low to mid 40s
–Fair weather is expected Thursday and Friday, but more rain is possible by next weekend

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:27am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:06pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 39 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 9:50pm tonight
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 6:29am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (0.9%)

A NOTE FROM OUR WEEKEND SPONSOR

  • Historic Deerfield

    Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Supported by Individual Community Members, and Sponsored by Historic Deerfield.

    Historic Deerfield is a mile-long museum of history, architecture, and art in Deerfield, MA. Including 12 historic houses, a modern museum facility, and a kids’ discovery center, Historic Deerfield is open 9:30am-4:30pm, Wednesdays-Sundays.

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