Good morning everybody, I’ll post my normal format post toward noon with an update about about the next 7 days which may have some additional snow chances, but I just wanted to jump in here this morning and confirm that all snow totals I have provided are likely coming down, except for areas in northeast CT and central MA, especially southern central MA.

As I alluded to last night around 9pm (which is when I should have dropped numbers to better set expectations for this morning) the the upper level low and the surface low phased about 3-4 hours later than expected, which means the surface low started drifting east-northeast out to sea, staying further south.

This morning it’s roughly 30-40 miles south of The Benchmark, still deepening, and tracking northeast.

That’s not a high-enough latitude to get the heavier snow bands that are now BLASTING southern CT, Rhode Island and southeast MA with 2-4″/hour snowfall, with 16″ already in southeast CT.

Still we do have a deformation zone band of sorts forming in northwest CT and southwest MA, so I will watch that and update you, as that can drop heavy snow in localized areas.

Please let me know much snow you have on the ground, but I suspect many reports will come in around 4-8″, and even less than 4″ north of Rt. 2 corridor in spots.

The bottom line is that the wind is going to be a main story today with gusts already hitting 30-45mph, and will likely pick up to 50mph at times this morning, before tapering down this afternoon, while still remaining blustery.

Enough snow has fallen and will continue to fall that when combined with wind, blowing and drifting of snow will occur, and visibility will be lowered, so while we’re not getting a major snowstorm for most of us in SVT, SWNH and WMass, we’ve got a very wintry day ahead.

I’m already observing subsidence forming to our east, which means steadier snow probably lasts through about mid-morning and then starts to taper down as the storm pulls northeast and consolidates the heavy snow over northeast CT (Tolland and Windham Counties) and CMass south of Route 2 where the heaviest snow totals will result, probably 10-16″ there.

The rest of us end up with around 2-5″ in SVT/SWNH and far northwest MA, and 4-8″ in the rest of WMass (maybe up to 10″ in eastern hilltowns of Franklin, Hampshire or Hampden Counties) with 6-10″ in northern CMass, and 8-14″ in northwest CT into Hartford County.

The high terrain can always see higher totals with upslope flow, and I will be watching that deformation zone band potential.

Don’t get me wrong: it’s a good thing to get less snow than expected after a winter like this, and with the potential for it causing more problems, but please know that I am not doing this for clicks, I’m trying to be helpful and communicate about something I love and that can cause problems for people, and my hope is to do so with public safety in mind.

Stay warm, it’s a wintry day ahead, and I will be back on here by late morning with a more formal report about the week ahead which does carry more snow chances, with a light impact possible for Wednesday. Have a great day.