Good morning folks, the extent to which we’ll develop or fail to develop the key ingredient of instability in our severe storm soup mix today will depend on how much sunshine we can develop either side of the noon hour before our cold front approaches and focuses copious moisture AND potent wind energy into strong to severe thunderstorms, with a low chance at a tornado due to some low-level turning of the air near the surface.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to place us in a Level 2 out of 5 risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong straight-line wind gusts capable of localized damage.

I do see some signal west of us that we could break into some periods of sunshine, so I will be monitoring that and updating you toward mid-day.

For now, warm frontal rains move through this morning, then we move into a lull mid to later morning, and watch for any sunshine to potentially warm the surface, creating instability that could interact with the strong winds aloft that will be pushing through our region this afternoon.

Highs will reach the mid 70s to low 80s, and if enough sun develops we may even see some mid 80s in the valley as humidity increases from the south, with dewpoints climbing into the 60s to near 70º.

Then whatever thunderstorm and downpour activity develops in response to these parameters will move through 1-6pm, and then our cold front will sweep the region, with clearing skies late and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Friday through Sunday look gorgeous with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s, west winds gusting 15-30mph into the weekend, and lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with only a few high-terrain showers each weekend afternoon in SVT, the Berkshires or western hilltowns.

By Monday, a signal continues to show a soaking rainfall possible, and we certainly need it, so let’s hope that comes to pass. Highs would only be in the 60s to low 70s, and then we’d see warming temps with more sunshine into mid week.

Thanks for reading, and have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Morning rainfall from our warm frontal passage will last into mid to later morning, and then relax
–Some partial sunshine is expected toward mid-day, but how long it lasts will help determine if we get strong to severe storms
–If we get stronger surface heating, the better the chance to fuel stronger thunderstorms
–There is also a low risk for an isolated tornado, especially north of the Pike this afternoon
–1-6pm is the main timeframe for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of torrential rainfall and a few localized damaging wind gusts
–Southerly gusts should develop and blow 20-35mph this afternoon, maybe a bit higher in far northwest MA and SVT
–Highs today reach the mid 70s to low 80s with lows in the 55-60º range behind the cold frontal passage this evening
–Friday through Sunday features higher pressure and sunnier skies with a few afternoon high-terrain showers west of the I-91 corridor
–Highs will hang in a pleasant upper 60s to upper 70s range during this period with westerly wind gusts of 15-30mph at times, and lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s
–Wind should slacken sometime on Sunday prior to clouds increasing into Monday morning
–Clouds thicken on Monday, then rainfall arrives by afternoon with a potential soaking rain Monday afternoon and night, ending Tuesday morning with highs in the 60s to low 70s, quite cool for this time of year
–Into mid-week sunshine redevelops and temps will warm up into the 70s to low 80s

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:14am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:29pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 15 hours and 15 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 9:09am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 11:38pm this evening
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (15.8%)