Good morning folks, we’ve got a serious heat wave on the way and if you’ve been following me for any length of time, I work very hard to not toss adjectives around like that very often, unless I think they’re required to get the point across. I believe this is the case with the upcoming Wednesday through Saturday period we’ve got very impactful weather that could cause health problems for some at-risk folks (outdoor workers, elderly, inform, folks with respiratory ailments, or folks without AC) so let’s jump into the details.

The two bookend days to our incoming spate of very hot and humid weather will be today and Sunday, when highs are likely to climb into the mid 80s to low 90s, acting as shoulders to our Wednesday through Saturday heat peak, with the Peak-peak of heat and humidity on Thursday and Friday – that’s the broad brush stroke of our incoming impacts.

For today, we have a very warm and increasingly humid day on the way, but also have the additional issue of a decaying Mesoscale Convective Complex diving southeast into southwest New England along the northeast flank of our incoming upper ridge that’s bringing the big heat and humidity later this week.

An MCC is just a cluster of self-sustaining thunderstorms, and while this one is likely to be weakening as it approaches SVT, the Berkshires, western hilltowns and northwest CT, it should hold together to bring some wet weather through western parts of our region, including parts of the Pioneer Valley, between 5-9pm. In addition, it could produce a strong to severe thunderstorm or two capable of localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rain, so I will be watching that.

Later tonight, that activity clears the region and lows will hang in the mid to upper 60s with increased humidity set to really surge by Wednesday afternoon.

By Wednesday, we’re full bore into our heat wave with very humid conditions developing. Highs will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s, with some upper 90s possible in the Springfield to Hartford stretch, along with dewpoints climbing into and through the upper 60s to mid 70s, which will push the heat index to and above 105º for some. Lows will hang in the low to mid 70s.

Remember that the Extreme Heat Warnings and Watches active across the region start on Wednesday later morning and last through Saturday.

By Thursday and Friday, our heat and humidity will completely max out, with highs well into the 90s both days, reaching the low 100s for some in the valley, with heat index values pushing to and above 110º both days.

This is dangerous-level heat and humidity for folks who do not stay hydrated, or for folks who work outside and aren’t prepared with water, ways to cool down, etc., was well as folks with respiratory issues and/or the elderly.

The other issue in this late-week period is that there will be what’s called and Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) in the mid/upper levels above our heads. Without any cold front or anything to take what will be very unstable surface air and send it skyward, it’s unlikely we’ll be dealing with anything but hazy, hot and humid conditions under very hazy sunshine.

However, should the mountains of the Berkshires, SVT, the western hills, or Litchfields (or even peaks east of the CT River) somehow force enough air skyward, if that atmospheric cap can be broken (an EML is warm and DRY air above hot and HUMID air), there’s a very low chance for a severe thunderstorm that could form quickly, so just floating that out there.

Otherwise by the 4th of July Saturday we’re very hot and humid again with highs in the 90s, heat indices up near 105º or so, and we DO expect a cold front to approach that day, which could pop some natural fireworks in the afternoon or evening, but I will update more on that we get closer.

Sunday certainly looks nicer with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s as our heat wave ends on Saturday for many, and on Sunday for some valley denizens, prior to reaching Monday which should stay below 90º.

I will keep you updated the whole way during this incoming heat wave, and I hope you have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Highs today reach the mid 80s to low 90s, getting humid, hazy, mostly sunny
–5-9pm features a weakening but possibly still potent cluster of thunderstorms and downpours, affecting areas mainly west of I-91
–Lows only in the mid to upper 60s overnight, drying out
–Wednesday highs upper 80s to mid 90s, with a few upper 90s possible lower Pioneer Valley, very humid
–Dewpoints crest into the low to mid 70s
–Lows drop into the low to mid 70s, very humid
–Heat and humidity peak Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s, very humid, lows in the 70s
–Very low chance, but not a zero chance for a severe thunderstorm if a mid-level type of cap is pierced by instability below it
–Otherwise, next chance for showers and thunderstorms is later on the 4th of July itself, which will be very hot and humid with highs in the 90s to near 100º
–A frontal boundary will be nearby and could set off strong to severe storms as cooler air tries to work in aloft
–Sunday is very warm with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, and likely drier especially by afternoon
–Monday is partly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:17am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:30pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 15 hours and 13 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 9:27pm tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 6:29am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (99.7% Illumination)