Good morning folks, we’re starting off cold in the teens and 20s with some low 30s down near the CT/MA line. We have a warm front pressing through the region thanks in part to high pressure passing to our southeast which will push a southwest flow into the region.

As a result (and thanks to a stronger pressure gradient with low pressure to north swinging through our longitude) we’ll see some gusty winds up to 20-30mph at times later today under partly to mostly sunny skies with highs either side of 40º.

For tonight, lows will dip into the upper teens to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies with perhaps a snow shower over SVT.

Thursday will be milder, as southerly flow continues to become more deeply established with highs well into the 40s under partly sunny skies, which will trend cloudier late in the day.

By afternoon, southerly gusts should start to increase with gusts up to 40mph possible by Thursday evening, and our first rain showers should arrive between 8pm and midnight. Showers will be scattered overnight, and temps should slowly be rising to and cresting over 50º by Friday morning.

How fast and far this rise occurs will help determine how much wind mixes down to the surface, and the wind component, I have found, is the hardest meteorological element to figure out ahead of time.

The potential is there for winds to gust up to and potentially even a bit over 50mph Friday morning when the heaviest rain is moving into the region, so I will be watching this piece, and the Friday morning commute looks slow.

Rain will end by mid-day, and then our cold front will sweep the region and with strong westerly gusts of 30-45mph, and Wind Advisories may be hoisted as a result for some parts of our region.

As temps drop back into through the 30s later in the day and into the evening (ending up in the upper teens to mid 20s for lows) some lake effect and/or upslope snow showers are expected, especially in the western high terrain west of I-91.

The weekend looks kinda meh, with highs in the 30s Saturday, and the upper 30s to mid 40s by Sunday with a few mixed showers possible at night.

Monday looks fair and colder with highs in the low to mid 30s with lows in the 20s, which may set us up for an overrunning event that could produce accumulating snow on Tuesday.

The bottom line is that we’ll lose snow from this incoming rainy and mild system, but some of us may still have a snow-blanketed XMas after all, and I will keep you updated throughout.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell