Good morning folks, we’re starting off on the cloudy side but we’ll start brightening back up this afternoon with dry conditions, and mostly sunny skies through Thursday before we turn our attention to strong coastal nor’easter that I’ve been talking about for days now, which is forming an early overall trend to be an impactful system with rain and wind for the greater WMass region, starting Friday but peaking over the weekend with over 2” of rain possible for some and gusts up to 45mph or even 50mph in some high terrain areas.

For this morning into our Tuesday we’re mostly cloudy, with a few sprinkles possible south of the Pike and in eastern CMass, which are on the wane. Strong high pressure to our north in southern Quebec has mostly shunted a system south of us, but its cloud deck has temporarily overtaken our skies.

We’ll see brightening by some point in the afternoon with partly sunny skies expected and highs in the low to mid 60s with northerly gusts up to 20mph at times. Lows will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight.

For Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure will more fully dominate our sensible weather with highs in the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies and north to northeast wind gusts of 15-25mph, followed by lows mostly in the 40-45º range.

This then brings us to Friday, which looks to be our transition day from days of fair weather, to a stormier period with the threat of a strong and developing ocean low that will be drawn northward, captured, and pulled westward by an incoming and developing upper low pressure system.

Friday looks partly sunny on average with highs in the 60s and some showers possible late, and more so into Friday night, but I don’t expect much stormy weather on Friday.

Before I continue, I must mention that this is a VERY wintry setup, and I can’t remember the last time I saw it form in the month of September (usually later October or November) but here we are!

Lacking from this wintry setup is any cold air at all, so it surely will be a rainstorm, which I only mention because many folks think “nor’easter” and then think “snow”, but not so, grasshoppahs.

The bottom line is that we’re still days away and small changes can produce more substantial forecast adjustments as we go forward in time, but for now the early trend is for this upper low to draw our ocean low north towards the Vineyard, and then as the upper low continues to track east and strengthen it will, like a tractor beam, continue to stack on stop of the surface low and pull it westward (a/k/a “retrograde”) along the southern New England coast towards the Jersey coast and the New York New Jersey Bight.

This will be happening during Friday night into Saturday, and so I believe that we’ll see periods of rainfall, sometimes on the heavier side, on Saturday with highs in the 60s, and northeasterly wind gusts of 15-30mph.

It’s really the Saturday night into Sunday timeframe that the now-coastal low gets yanked westward, and that would provide a punch of heavier rainfall and stronger wind to come ashore and impact parts of the greater WMass region, especially south of the Rt. 2 corridor down into northern CT.

Easterly wind gusts could push 30-50mph at times, with the higher ranges likely in the higher terrain, less so in the valley.

Highs on Sunday hang in the 60s as well with lows both weekend nights either side of 50º.

The Monday and Tuesday timeframe would be when a westerly to easterly zonal flow gets reestablished and pushes this storm east and out to sea, meaning that even in its weakened state, it will bring through periods of showers and some wind Monday into Tuesday mid-day, but the peak of the storm looks to be over the weekend.

I will update as you as we get closer, I know there are a lot of outdoor events going on this weekend, but I can’t really offer any more details that what I just did. Things can change, and hopefully they will for the better, but the storm potential is there.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:37am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 6:47pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 12 hours 10 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 5:00pm this afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 3:09am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (81.9% Illumination)

YOUR DAILY NUTSHELL(S)
TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
–Mostly cloudy early, then partly sunny during Tuesday afternoon
–Mostly sunny Wednesday and Thursday
–Highs low to mid 60s through this period
–North to northeast winds gust 15-25mph during this period
–Lows upper 30s to mid 40s, chilly mornings

FRIDAY:
–Clouds increase as a strong ocean low is drawn north by an incoming upper low from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
–Scattered showers are possible later in the day or at night
–Highs low to mid 60s
–Showers expected Friday night, especially east of I-91
–Lows in the 40s

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
–If this storm comes to pass, this is when it’s most likely to peak
–For now, periods of rainfall, sometimes heavy, will fall
–East-Northeast to easterly winds will gust 15-30mph Saturday
–Wind gusts pick up Saturday night into Sunday to 30-50mph possible
–Highs in the low to mid 60s throughout, lows either side of 50º
–Stay tuned for weather updates, as things can change!

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
–The storm weakens near the Mid-Atlantic coast, then tracks back east and out to sea
–Scattered showers possible, breezy conditions each day, especially Monday
–Highs in the 60s, lows mid to upper 40s
–More details as we get closer